Are you winning the swing vote?

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Undecided voters can decide elections. If your campaign’s in a close race down the stretch, you understand the importance of putting dollars behind identifying and targeting known swing voters well before they head into the voting booth. With just three weeks remaining until Election Day, engaging this critical segment with a message worthy of their vote needs to be a part of any savvy campaign strategy.

At Resonate, we put our dynamic artificial-intelligence driven models to work to find and target swing voters – from the national to local level – with surgical precision. With just a few clicks in our voter insights platform, we’re ready to analyze swing voters across thousands of the most relevant political persuasion insights and target them wherever they are online. This is how winning is done.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s driving the 2018 midterm swing voter on the national scale and in a couple of key 2018 election battlegrounds.

National Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 16M

Compared to the average registered U.S. voter, national swing voters are:

  • 22% more likely to be passionate about local issues
  • 48% more likely to be 65 years or older
  • 47% more likely to lean fiscally conservative

Bonus insight: at least 50% of this audience will vote in the midterms primarily because they feel it is their civic duty. 12% will vote because of state-level concerns.

Pennsylvania Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 743K

Compared to the average registered Pennsylvania voter, Pennsylvania swing voters are:

  • 38% more likely to be motivated by maintaining traditions
  • 97% more likely to want President Trump to identify and address foreign trade abuses
  • 57% more likely to believe water conservation is a top societal concern

Bonus insight: 50% of this audience voted for Donald Trump in 2016.

Wisconsin Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 387K

Compared to the average Wisconsin voter, Wisconsin swing voters are:

  • 75% more likely to believe improving infrastructure and transportation is a top priority
  • 33% more likely to be accepting of those who are different
  • 60% more likely to support enacting congressional term limits

Bonus insight: 25% of this audience voted for a candidate besides Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in 2016.

If your campaign needs to engage and win swing voters in the final 3 weeks, contact Resonate’s Campaign Hotline today to get started immediately. Don’t leave the swing vote to chance, start engaging and winning now!

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Targeting Supreme Court Priorities

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The Supreme Court nomination process has rocked the midterm elections. But if you were there in 2016, you’re prepared for late game surprises – the ones with the potential to swing elections and demand on-the-fly strategy changes.

At Resonate, we operate in real-time. We have immediately deployable models for online voter targeting, refreshed nightly to account for the shifts and issues of the day, we ensure campaigns stay relevant and armed with battle-tested data to win in the toughest political climates.

For example, two of the thousands of voter audiences refreshed in our platform last night are likely midterm voters who either support or oppose the appointment of fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Here’s a quick look at where these two segments stand today.

Likely midterm voters who support appointing fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court:

  • Audience size: 35.1 Million
  • Top 3 Supreme Court policies: protect gun rights, further pro-life issues, protect workers’ rights to opt out of a union
  • Driven by a devotion to God and sense of civility – value conformity and reputation
  • 50% more likely to vote based on an important societal or political issue this year
  • 96% more likely to be 65 years or older
  • 44% more likely to vote for a candidate based on their defense/military platform

Likely midterm voters who oppose appointing fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court:

  • Audience size: 32.2 Million
  • Top 3 Supreme Court policies: enact gun control, further pro-choice policies, allow unions to collect dues from non-joining workers
  • Driven by expressing individuality and proving competence and skills
  • 133% more likely to have their vote influenced by the newspapers the read
  • 87% more likely to vote absentee
  • 117% more likely to be most passionate about promoting civil liberties

*insights compared to the average U.S. voter.

It’s real-time insights like these that provide a clear view of the voters on both sides of what has become the most important issue in the midterm elections in the final month. With each audience exceeding 30 million likely midterm voters, outreach and engagement strategies to sympathetic voters will prove critical from now until Election Day. If your campaign needs to immediately activate either of these audiences, or another critical voter segment, contact Resonate’s Campaign Hotline today.

CONTACT CAMPAIGN HOTLINE

We tracked a dramatic shift in voter patterns in AZ-08. How secure is your district?

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In a nationally watched Arizona special election last month, a Democrat came close to victory in a district Republicans won by a 37% vote margin in 2016. The results in Arizona came off the heels of another special election in Pennsylvania, where a Democrat bested a Republican in a district the Democrats didn’t even bother to challenge in 2016.

Conventional intelligence suggests the early special election results are a bellwether for the 2018 midterm elections. Perhaps they are…but if we are to listen closely and objectively, what do these bellwethers actually indicate for campaigns throughout the country?

At Resonate, we leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) models to gain an advanced and unbiased understanding of how voter behavior in AZ-08, home to last month’s special election, and media consumption patterns throughout Arizona can help inform the best strategies for targeting and messaging voters this cycle.

Want to learn more about the digital media bubble phenomena in modern day politics? View the SlideShare – Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

Digital Media Bubbles in AZ-08 Called for Persuasion Tactics

Media Bubbles in AZ-08

 

This map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in digital news consumed by AZ-08 voters – at zip code level – in the months leading up to the April 24th special election. Calculated by AI powered behavioral models, we call these pockets of political news consumption, “media bubbles”.

If the red on the map is indicative of conservative media consumed by voters heading into the election, does this look like a district the Republicans carried by 37% less than 2 years ago?

 

The fact is the landscape and voter patterns in AZ-08 drastically changed in a short period of time…and AI suggests this is happening on a real-time basis in districts all over the nation.

By mapping out these media bubbles, our models showed the best way to win a plurality of the vote in AZ-08 was by adopting a persuasion plan aimed at targeting and appealing to independent-minded voters. Represented in the purple that dominates the above map, these voters were ready for messages that appealed to their policy positions and values, not just party bias or voter history.

Statewide Media Bubbles Reinforce Swing Vote Significance

AZ Media Bubbles Reinforce Swing Vote Significance

This map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in digital news consumed by voters throughout Arizona. White space represents low census areas that fail to provide adequate scale.

Even the behavioral patterns throughout the entire state reinforce the major role independent and swing voters will play in deciding several major races this year, including the Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As the map shows, staunch conservative and liberal media consumption is few and far between…

 

 

To add another layer of significance to the independent voter, AI reveals that only 21% of registered voters in Arizona will choose a candidate based on their party affiliation.

The Bellwether Political Campaigns Should Follow

Early special election results and behavioral patterns in battlegrounds like Arizona are highlighting the essential role independents and swing voters will play in races throughout the nation this year – even in races that were just recently considered foregone conclusions.

To successfully track and engage these audiences, midterm campaigns should embrace AI solutions that power the most relevant data and targeting tools built for political persuasion and real-time measurement.

By adopting these tactics, campaigns will keep speed with quickly-evolving voter patterns and have the tools necessary to engage an entire constituency, not just a broad party platform that is sure to let some voters fall through the cracks. Come Election Day, those voters could very well be the ones who decide the winners and losers.

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Texas Too Close to Call? How Will Your Side Fare?

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A recent Quinnipiac poll found the 2018 Senate race in Texas “too close to call”, suggesting things may be a little closer than you think in a known Republican stronghold.

For a deeper understanding on what’s happening in Texas, we leveraged Resonate’s artificial intelligence (AI) platform to analyze the current partisan divide in the state, focusing on how voters identify politically and then assessing the levels of partisanship present in their media consumption habits. Here’s what we found:

Republicans Hold Majority Support – Independents Outnumber Democrats

When assessing which political party voters in Texas self-identify with, our predictive models show that Republicans still hold the lion’s share of support with 40% — compared to 25% Democrats. No big surprise here considering recent election results.

The real game changer could be in the purple. Our models show that 29% of registered voters in Texas now identify as Independents. Such a big slice of voters not identifying with a party helps us understand the heightened level of uncertainty that’s crept into Texas this cycle. It should also serve notice to both sides: the path to victory needs to include a sophisticated Independent outreach strategy.

The Media Bubble Phenomenon: How Online Behavioral Activity Translates to Real World Patterns 
Using AI powered solutions, Resonate is enabling the modern political campaign to identify-analyze-target ideologically driven, private communication channels in the digital world, better known as “media bubbles”. These strategies are deployed to better understand political landscapes through real-time behavioral patterns and leverage deep voter insights to target persuadables trapped in hostile media environments. Learn more about the role of media bubbles in modern day politics.

Texas Bubbles
Media Consumption Leans Conservative –Liberal Consumption Also Evident

Texas Voters News Consumption

The above map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in online news consumed by Texas voters – at zip code level. Congressional boundaries are drawn to understand the various media bubbles throughout each congressional district.

Given our models show self-Identifying Republicans outnumbering Democrats in Texas by 15%, it’s no surprise that the behavioral data – represented in the above map – shows on average most Texans consume conservative news online.

However, heavy purple patches on the southern border and blue pockets throughout the state tell us the conversation is far from one-sided.

With six months until Election Day, there’s plenty of stories and facts yet to be told. The side that ends up controlling the conversation often comes down to who tells their story best – to the right voters – at the right time.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare, providing a detailed look at the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics and how campaigns can leverage AI to disrupt voter behavior throughout campaign lifecycles.

Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers

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Understanding Voter Behavior in Pennsylvania – An Unpredictable Battleground

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Online media patterns emerging in Pennsylvania this cycle reinforce the state’s reputation as a fierce election battleground; a battleground Trump barely claimed in 2016 with 0.7% of the vote.

Want to learn more about the digital media bubble phenomena in modern day politics? View the SlideShare – Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

Statewide and local operatives in Pennsylvania would be wise to pay close attention to the patterns emerging in their target areas. Having real-time access to this level of voter behavioral intelligence will best position campaigns to:

  • Identify emerging pockets of momentum prime for Get-Out-The-Vote and mobilization efforts.
  • Locate and target high-yield counties and districts home to Independents sympathetic to the campaign’s messaging.
  • Combat harmful news stories – as they break – by establishing counter narratives online that target and are tailored to sympathetic voters trapped in opposition media bubbles.

The below map identifies digital media bubbles throughout the state of Pennsylvania. The wave of purple indicates that the majority of Keystone State voters are having election-based conversations that are consistent with an independent narrative. Conservatives nor liberals hold an outright advantage in conservation control.

Pennsylvania Statewide Media Consumption

Resonate’s AI (artificial intelligence) solutions allow campaigns to see clearly into murky political landscapes like Pennsylvania by understanding how digital behavioral patterns are informing voter positioning throughout the course of election cycles.

Media Bubble Methodology
  • Machine-learning technology, observing 10B online events daily, monitored all news consumed by individual devices located in Pennsylvania – at zip code scale.
  • Automated URL and contextual analysis quantified the ideological slant of every publication along conservative and liberal lines.
  • The proportion of bias in media consumption was calculated, at zip code level, by averaging the activity of all devices observed within each zip’s boundaries.
Understanding the Results
  • The maps use a color-scale to show the average proportion of conservative news consumed per zip code: 0.2 (most liberal) to 0.9 (most conservative).
  • Example: 0.3 color would mean on average, 30% of a device’s behavior is conservative in that zip code (by extension, 70% on average is liberal).
  • White space represents areas where census is too low to provide adequate data.
PA-07

The above map documents real-time media bubbles throughout PA-07, a toss-up House race recently redrawn to advantage Republicans. However, the Republican incumbent who dominated the district in years past resigned this year amidst scandal, which changed the status of the PA-07 midterm from “safe” to “toss-up”.

The behavioral patterns we see in PA-07 today support how close things are in the district this year. While the voters in the western part of the district are largely engaging with conservative media, voters in the east have a demand for independent and liberal-based media.

This type of localized behavioral intelligence can serve as a strategic weapon for both sides. In the case of PA-07, Republicans can capitalize on the heavy momentum they have out west towards Lancaster, while Democrats can do the same in the east towards Philadelphia. When it comes to engaging the independent-minded voters who often decide the margins in the toss-ups, both sides should focus on the heart of the district where the minds are open and the conservation is mild.

Stay Tuned for More Resonate AI Behavioral Maps

In the coming weeks, Resonate will be publishing a series of media bubble maps like those seen in Pennsylvania, leveraging AI to measure voter behavior and sentiment in the most competitive states and districts.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare presentation that provides a detailed assessment of the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics: Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

 

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How Big Data Can Drive U.S. House Battleground Wins

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As a follow-up to our most recent blog on the U.S. Senate midterm outlook, we wanted to assess the state of the U.S. House heading into a pivotal midterm year and the role big data will play in battleground victories this cycle.

A Fiercely Competitive Midterm Landscape

Both parties’ quest for control of the House needs to go through the roughly 20 battleground districts scattered throughout the country this year, which is only about 5% of all House midterms. And if the 2016 House elections are any indication, these fights will go the distance. Last cycle, approximately 26 battleground races had an average margin of victory of less than 6%.

Strategies that Drive Battleground Victories

The battleground districts are fiercely competitive because winning here means winning the elusive swing voter. This presents a great opportunity for campaigns that understand how to go beyond traditional GOTV tactics that rely on party-line turnout to engage critical independents that will ultimately decide their fate.

At Resonate, our bread and butter is helping campaigns locate and persuade niche voter blocs that carry a candidate over the finish line. By combining census scale, voter research and massive online behavioral models, we can put a microscope on a district and accurately predict over 7,000 targetable attributes for each individual voter.

The result is an electoral profile that goes far beyond static insights, like party affiliation and voter propensity, and gets to the core values and motivations that drive a voter to support a candidate. If a campaign is able to customize their creative and messaging around these deep-level attributes, they ensure optimal engagement through a precise targeting strategy that will maximize media budget.

Real Time Voter Data in a 2018 Toss Up Race

Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district, which covers the south Twin Cities metro area, had a margin of victory of just 1.8% in 2016, making it one of the most heavily contested seats in the country. And the battle for MN-02 is on again this year…

We leveraged Resonate’s real time voter data to take a look at the voters inside MN-02 to gain a better understanding of how campaigns can win their hearts and minds this year. Here’s some of what we found:

  • 17% of the district’s voters have been swing voters in recent elections.
  • Swing voters here are driven by their closeness to family and trust from others. On policy, they believe strongly in a simple tax code and over half of this audience will vote for a candidate based on healthcare policies.
  • Republicans in the district are very concerned with maintaining traditional energy sources compared to statewide Minnesota Republicans.
  • Democrats in the district are very engaged in pro-choice issues compared to statewide Minnesota Democrats.

Making Big Data Work for You this Cycle

The ability to identify and communicate with nice voter blocs by leveraging personalized attributes, like the ones listed above or a unique combination of thousands of other deep-level insights, will lend a tremendous competitive edge for campaigns battling in the tightest of races.

If your campaign is interested in seeing how quickly and easily big data and predictive analytics can be deployed this cycle to identify and persuade the right voters – with the right message – contact us.

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2018 US Senate Outlook and Early On the Ground Realities

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It’s early, although the dawn of the 2018 senate midterm elections has emerged from an unprecedented year of political sensationalism.

The heavy partisan divide in 2017 gave rise to the significance of this year’s midterms and the legislative procedural politics that will frame the debate from now until November, which already include one government shutdown amidst a fierce immigration standoff.

Below we will assess factors framing the senate landscape and leverage Resonate’s real time voter data to measure on-the-ground realities in several senate battlegrounds.

The Map

The split in the senate currently favors Republicans 51-49.

To take control of the senate, the Democrats must pick up 2 seats, while the Republicans need to hold existing seats.

The senate map is bad for Democrats for two primary reasons:

  • Democrats hold 26 of the 34 total seats in play.
  • 10 of the 26 seats Democrats are defending are in states where Trump won in 2016, 5 by double digits.

With the battle field advantage going to the Republicans, we’re already seeing legislative maneuvers by vulnerable Senate Democrats.

Just last week, four Democratic Senators broke with their party and voted with Republicans on a bill to fund the government, despite the majority of Democrats balking at the bill because it failed to include a legislative solution for the Dreamers.

Of these four Democrats, three face difficult paths to reelection this year in states where Trump won by double digits. One of whom is Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a state where Trump won by 42% of the vote.

A look at Resonate’s West Virginia data shows Manchin’s legislative play should yield good results with voters. For example:

  • West Virginia midterm voters who backed Trump in 2016 are over 100% more likely to be a swing voter when compared to voters nationwide.

By taking an early bipartisan position in Washington, Manchin can amplify his independent voice with a significant percentage of the swing voters he needs.

  • Only 15% of West Virginia Democrats likely to vote in the midterms will choose a candidate based on immigration.

Since only a small portion of his Democratic base vote on immigration, Manchin’s vote last week should not rattle the party loyal.

For Manchin and other vulnerable candidates, understanding home state realities throughout the year will be important in identifying and targeting the right voters with the right story.

Voter Turnout

As with any midterm, voter turnout is critical. And while the Republicans are thought to hold the turnout advantage thanks to older voter support, history has shown that when a Republican occupies the White House, that midterm turnout advantage is essentially neutralized.

Campaign strategists are already looking to the millennial vote for turnout success and with good reason. In 2018, millennials passed baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote.

While millennials are the largest eligible voting bloc, turning millennials out in the midterms is not an easy task. In the 2014 midterms, just 12% of voters under 30 voted.

In battleground Wisconsin, Resonate data is already showing the power millennial voters could have over the senate race.

As of now, 21% of likely Wisconsin midterm voters are millennials. The power of this statistic is put in perspective when you consider that Trump only carried Wisconsin with 0.7% of the vote, and incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin won the state with just 51% in her last election.

Identifying eligible voters not likely to vote in midterms may be equally important. The ability to target these audiences with Get-Out-The-Vote messages tailored to their values can be a major competitive advantage in tight races.

Staying in Wisconsin, Resonate data shows hundreds of thousands of eligible millennial voters who are non-frequent midterm voters. Insights on this audience show:

  • They are 41% more likely than the average midterm voter to support a candidate based on environmental policies.
  • 50% of this audience will vote for candidates based on social issues.
  • 38% identify as Independents, while 30% identify as Republicans and 26% as Democrats.

Non-frequent Millennial midterm voters in Wisconsin – Political Party insight

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Millennial non-frequent midterm voters in Wisconsin – Political Party Identification

Approval Ratings and Polling

An early midterm focus has been President Trump’s historically low approval ratings and the extent they will impact election outcomes.

While approval ratings and other national polls can be helpful in assessing the overall landscape, it’s important to understand that even the most reliable polling sources are often too slow to detect on-the-ground, individual-level sentiment shifts in electorates.

It’s estimated that between 5-15% of the electorate oscillate between positions until Election Day. Campaigns that can adequately track and respond to real time voter shifts are likely to win a plurality of the vote in the fiercest battlegrounds.

Two states where senate campaigns will need to monitor voter sentiment closely are Nevada and Arizona, both of which are home to toss-up races that could dictate senate control.

In Arizona, 26% of likely midterm voters are still persuadable on Donald Trump. If national politics end up playing a decisive role in this race, both campaigns have an opportunity to persuade a significant percentage of voters that appear to be on the fence.

Likely Arizona Midterm Voters – Support for Donald Trump insight.

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Likely Arizona Midterm Voters – Support for Donald Trump

In Nevada, another voter insight demonstrates a persuasion opportunity for both sides.

Currently in the Silver State, just under 60% of likely midterm voters are neutral as to whether the American Dream is still within their reach, showing a heightened sense of uncertainty in a pivotal senate race.

Likely Arizona Midterm Voters –American Dream insight

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Likely Nevada Midterm Voters – American Dream

For the senate battleground campaign this year, it’s important they keep their eyes on the ground with data that scales and allows them to understand the core beliefs of individual voters in order to track how attitudes, positions and behaviors shift on a continuous basis.

About Resonate: Resonate combines the nation’s largest proprietary voter survey data with dynamic behavioral analysis to generate the most accurate, real-time insights and predictive modeling at scale. Our end-to-end data, analytics and digital media activation solution unifies strategy and action to drive campaign wins.

Midterm Election Preview: Millennial Voter Infographic

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As part of Resonate’s 2018 Midterm Election Preview Infographic Series, we take a look at the generation that will pass baby boomers as the largest eligible voter demographic in the country next year: Millennials.

Winning Millennial Voters

Breaking Down the Alabama Conservative Media Bubble

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Deep in the Heart of Dixie is an online conservative media bubble made up of nearly half a million Alabamians.

The individuals encompassed by this media bubble have at least one thing in common: the majority of news and facts they consume – in general as well as specifically in regards to allegations against Republican candidate for Senate, Roy Moore, – are the products of right-wing publications. Collectively, the constellation of publishers that comprise the conservative media bubble function as a private channel of communication with the Republican base, and have enabled Roy Moore to regain traction through a combination of spin and deflection without the burden of a counter narrative from a sophisticated opposition. For many voters inside this bubble, the conservative narrative is the only reporting they’ve encountered on the topic.

At Resonate, we combined the nation’s largest independent voter research with anonymized contextual, real-time analysis of more than 15b online events a day, leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced predictive modeling to verify the existence of this bubble and deeply analyze its audience at an individual-level. The findings presented here are untainted by political bias and rather a fundamental exercise in objectivity assessing outcomes.

The result is data that strongly indicates that it’s past time for campaigns, especially those in tight races, to think about cross-party political media bubbles differently. And it starts right now in the Alabama special.

Not your average media bubble

Common knowledge says political media bubbles are formed through self-selection among ideologically driven audiences and represent impenetrable groups with no signs of independent voting behavior. For these reasons, campaigns have viewed bubbles floating on opposing political spectrums as lost causes, leaving the voters within them to operate freely in a world of alternate facts and selectively edited narratives. However, our analyses at Resonate reveal these groups to be surprisingly diverse coalitions and differences in issue interest, life stages, and socioeconomic status provide a strong foundation for nuanced messaging.

What we have here in Alabama is by no means your traditional conservative media bubble. Not by a long shot.

Barack Obama voters live here. Pro-choice voters live here. Our models statistically prove that these are real audiences currently inhabiting this space in large numbers.

The reality for Roy Moore’s opponent, Doug Jones, and the Democrats is now this: there are not enough standard Democrats to win the special Senate election in Alabama. The Jones campaign will need to make precise appeals to voters who consume the majority of their news through conservative channels to tip the scale. Reaching those voters begins with knowing where to look and more importantly, what to say.

The Counter Narrative in the Alabama Conservative Media Bubble

Before analyzing the voters inside the conservative media bubble, we find it illustrative to pair the emerging conservative talking points alongside their impacts to the Alabama special election.

The primary narratives spreading through the conservative media bubble have provided a measurably successful counter narrative to the multiple damaging Moore allegations of sexual assault and molestation reported by mainstream sources.

The conservative counter narrative essentially maintains that all of the women who have come forward are lying as part of a left-wing conspiracy to destroy the candidacy and reputation of Moore, a dedicated public servant victimized for his conservative views and Christian values. These statements by rule omit critical details including that it was community-wide knowledge Roy Moore was banned from a shopping mall for harassing young women or that is wife was in the same high school class as one of the women making the allegations.

This disruption narrative that is almost exclusively informing over 321k online Alabama residents about Roy Moore’s character and past is a powerful one. It has served as a life jacket for the Moore campaign that all but two weeks ago looked dead in the water amidst the wave of accusations. If you look to the roller coaster polling numbers this race has produced you can see right into the power of the bubble.

Before the Washington Post broke the story on the explosive allegations, Moore led Jones by roughly 9 points according to the Real Clear Politics September-October polling average. At the time, this came as no surprise in one the most conservative states in the union that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than two decades. Although once the stories broke on Moore’s alleged misconduct, a Jones victory seemed inevitable…almost.

In the days following the original report more women came forward against Moore and additional members from the community went on record accusing Moore of similar predatory behavior. At this point, leading congressional members from Moore’s own party had heard enough and called for Moore to step out of the senate race immediately, including Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Alabama’s senior Senator, Richard Shelby.

As a direct result of the reports and Moore’s own party abandoning him, the polls immediately shifted in Jones’ favor in a big way. In a Fox News poll (Yes, Fox news) Democrat Doug Jones now led by 8 points, representing a 17 point jump from the September-October polling averages.

Now just two weeks later after Jones’ surge and with Election Day around the corner, the race has evened out and more recent polls have Moore back in the lead by as much as 6 points.

What happened? The counter narrative in the conservative media bubble worked and successfully controlled voter sentiment to a level that put Moore back in the lead.

A Jones Path to Victory: Identifying and Targeting the Bubble’s Persuadables

In a race where Jones and the Democrats now need every persuadable vote possible to defeat Moore in Alabama, they need to penetrate this conservative media bubble and change the conversation. This can be done by identifying the large segments of persuadables and leveraging their most relevant targetable attributes to deliver a message that releases them from the bubble and is worthy of their vote.

Of the over 321k Alabamians trapped in this bubble, Jones and Democrats should start with the low hanging fruit. These are the voters that already disagree with Moore on policy and susceptible to Democratic messaging. Our data shows that these audiences include:

  • 2012 Barack Obama Voters: 26% of the individuals inside the bubble voted for Barack Obama in his reelection campaign. The Jones campaign should by no means concede 1 of these 83k plus Obama voters to a conservative politician like Roy Moore.
  • Pro-Choice Supporters: 56% of the individuals inside the bubble also support pro-choice policies and upholding the Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade decision. This puts this large audience in direct opposition to Roy Moore’s central campaign promise to repeal Roe v Wade and outlaw abortion.

Alabama Conservative Media Bubble - Card 1

Our analytics also identify specific audiences outside of Moore’s core constituency and those who are more likely to be sensitive to the mainstream media’s reporting on the Moore allegations.

For example, within the bubble we see:

  • Non-religious Voters: 33% of individuals in the bubble rarely attend religious services and when indexed against the average Alabama resident, they are 32% more likely not to be in Church on Sundays. This is not an average Roy Moore voter who may have a pastor who has endorsed Moore or choose to vote along religious lines.
  • Parents or guardians to Girls: A staggering 70% of this audience is either a parent or a guardian to a girl. By targeting this niche demographic audience with facts on Moore’s past from outside-the-bubble media sources, the Jones campaign can connect with their parental values and sense of responsibility.

Alabama Conservative Media Bubble - Card 2

Tight and unpredictable races like the Alabama special election are not just a matter of turning out the base. These races come down to who can find and win enough persuadables to cross the finish line. For Jones and the Democrats, this path to victory is through the heart of a conservative media bubble that has trapped a large segment of his persuadables. If he wants to win, he needs to go out and get them.

Bonus data point: 89% of the Alabama conservative media bubble can be targeted on Facebook.

Alabama Conservative Media Bubble - Card 3

If you want to learn more about Resonate’s ability to deeply analyze and target niche persuadable political audiences that deliver campaign wins contact Resonate at success@resonate.com.

Midterm Election Preview: Hispanic Voter Infographic

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Winning in many of the most competitive statewide and local races in the 2018 midterm elections will require campaigns to persuade and mobilize the critical Hispanic vote. A winning 2018 GOTV strategy should include outreach to Hispanic voters who are likely to vote in midterms, those who historically avoid midterms and the large group of eligible Hispanic voters who have yet to register to vote.

Hispanic Midterm Infographic