New data from rAI reveals that 7.9 million Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 backed Trump in 2024—and their shift was decisive. These voters handed Trump wins in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—delivering him the presidency.
Now, however, Trump’s tariffs—which, most recently, include a proposed 100% tariff on movies made outside the United States and a 145% tariff on goods made in China—have split these voters into smaller groups based on their opinion of these actions. According to rAI, 3.7M Biden-turned-Trump voters oppose tariffs on all imports, including an extra emphasis on China, while 1.7M support the measures.
While these voters have representatives in all age groups, an interesting data point emerges from an audience comparison of their ages: 44% of the tariff opposers are 55 and older, while a significant 51% of the tariff supporters are 49 and younger. During the 2024 presidential election, Trump overwhelmingly captured the vote of young men, who found they related to and agreed with not just his ideas of what posed a threat to the prosperity of America, but who. It’s likely that these same young men are well represented among the 18–49-year-olds who support the tariffs, and it should also be noted that 57% of the tariff supporters are male.
Interestingly, the tariff supporters seem to have remained in favor of levying additional costs on trade goods from outside the United States even though they’d be hard hit by the extra $5,000 or so that experts believe tariffs will cost the average American household. Nearly a quarter of them—24%—make just $25–$50K per year. Almost none of the tariff supporters make over $200K; in contrast, 12% of the tariff opposers bring in $200K or more a year. The opposers, in fact, tend to make more than the supporters in general: 59% of them make $75K or more annually, while 69% of the tariff opposers make $75K or less. This perhaps suggests that they oppose Trump on more than just “What will tariffs cost the average American?” grounds.
This is further bolstered by the tariff supporters’ outlook on their personal finances in the next six months: 11% expect to be significantly better off by the end of the year. Then, another surprise, 31% of the supporters and the opposers expect their personal finances to be somewhat improved in the next six months. None of the tariff opposers expect to be significantly worse off—compared to 5% of the supporters, and 42% of the supporters and 46% of the opposers expect things to be about the same.
While the exact reasons each group supports or opposes the tariffs are myriad and unique to the individual, a look at the opposers’ and supporters’ personal values offers some clues. President Trump’s “uncertainty strategy”—to quote Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—has resulted in an unpredictable economic environment that could feel, to some, like chaos. This, taken together with the insight that the tariff opposers value being reliable and trustworthy and safety in oneself and family, provides some information into why they do not support the current trade policy.
Both groups spend about an equal amount of time online. For instance, 20% of the tariff opposers are online 40 hours or more a week, while 19% of the tariff supporters are online for the same amount of time. There are other similarities in their media consumption habits as well. Neither group is significantly engaged with either newspapers or magazines—digital or print. And for both, Discovery+ (with ads) and ESPN+ are the top streaming platforms.
That’s where the similarities end, at least in terms of media consumption. Tariff opposers split their time pretty equally between linear and CTV, with 19% heavily engaged with the former and 17% heavily engaged with the latter.
Despite an ideological closeness with the Republican Party on the tariffs issue, most of the supporters don’t generally identify with the GOP. In fact, both subsets of Biden-turned-Trump voters tend to identify with either the Democratic Party or as Independents, suggesting that they may have voted for Trump based on agreements with him (or disagreements with VP Harris) on nuanced, individual issues rather than a larger ideological closeness with the Republican, conservative base. This doesn’t mean they’re normally Democrats, though: nearly half of both groups describes themselves as swing voters in the last few elections (51% opposers/48% supporters).
What each subgroup considers the top issue areas is another place where there are some differences between the two groups. For Biden-Turned-Trump Voters who oppose tariffs, toughening law enforcement and prosecution, controlling illegal immigration, and enacting gun control reforms are top of mind. For those voters who support tariffs, on the other hand, protecting online/internet privacy is the highest priority, with reforming entitlements and toughening law enforcement and prosecution coming in second and third, respectively.
Interestingly, the tariff supporters view China as a serious threat to the United States, which may provide one reason why they’re willing to endure some financial pain in return for what they may view as a step that’s necessary to protect national interests. For the tariff opposers, China is much farther down on the list of threats, while Russia, one of the only nation’s not on Trump’s tariff roster, is closer to the top.
As costs rise and economic uncertainty grows, Resonate can help you target these exact voters—today. Learn how or schedule a consultation to get started.
