Everything from our normal routine and work environment to travel plans and issue support is rapidly shifting based on the state of the pandemic. Naturally, with nearly every aspect of our lives changing, voter intent is undoubtedly going to shift as well, especially when it comes to the presidential election.
It’s more important than ever for campaigns to have a deep, up-to-the-minute understanding of voter values, what influences their voting decisions and what issues matter most to them in the present moment, as all this has likely changed from just two months ago. As November 2020 inches closer, campaigns need to keep their finger on the pulse of these changes. Resonate is the only data intelligence company closely tracking COVID-19 voter sentiment and bringing you impactful insights to help you shift strategy and messaging in real-time.
Using Resonate’s proprietary, up-to-the-minute voter data, we analyzed the US adult population who intend to vote in the November 2020 election AND whose view of President Trump has worsened since COVID-19 began. We also break this group down into sub-segments by independents and republicans. Who are these voters? Did they vote for Trump in 2016? What qualities are important to them in a president? What issues are important to them and how can you reach them in order to win their vote at the polls?
U.S. ADULTS WHO INTEND TO VOTE IN 2020, HAVE A WORSENED VIEW OF TRUMP
Who are these voters and what is their sentiment surrounding COVID-19?
This segment of likely voters represents a population of 67.2 million. They are predominantly married, retired women ages 55-64. They’re 31% more likely to be concerned about coronavirus to a large extent and are 42% more likely to believe life will return to normal in 7-12 months. 50% of this group is concerned about the health-related consequence of the pandemic, whereas only 2% are as concerned about the economic-related consequences.
They’re 109% more likely than the average U.S. voter to disagree that the federal government is effective in addressing a crisis. Not surprisingly, the group of voters that have a worsened view of Trump say they are, or skew, Democrat (52%). However, there are two noteworthy sub-segments: 23% of this group identifies as independent and 22% identify themselves, or skew, republican. Below we analyze these two voter segments.
CONSTITUENTS WHO INTEND TO VOTE IN 2020, HAVE A WORSENED VIEW OF TRUMP AND INDENTIFY INDEPENDENT
Who are they and what is their sentiment surrounding COVID-19?
This group is of 14 million constituents is mostly made up of married men who are either ages 25-34 or 45-54 with no kids under 18. They are most likely to live in Massachusetts. 42% of this voter segment is concerned about the coronavirus to a large extent, specifically health-related consequences, as they’re worried about themselves or a friend/colleague contracting it. They’re not as concerned with the economic impact of the pandemic. However, despite their health concerns, they have only been quarantining in their homes, practicing social distancing and washing their hands to a small extent.
When it comes to support surrounding social services since the pandemic began, this segment is 34% more likely than the average U.S. voter to be more opposed to enhancing school free meal programs, but they’re 59% more likely to be supportive of Medicare for all, 27% more likely to be more supportive of enhancing unemployment coverage and 18% more likely to be more supportive of expanding the social safety net. This group is 50% more likely than the average U.S. voter to believe the federal government is ineffective at addressing a crisis, which aligns with their worsening view of Trump. They have a little more trust in their state and local government, as they’re only 19% more likely to believe they’re ineffective at addressing a crisis. In terms of when they believe life will return to normal, 35% of this segment believe it won’t be for another 4-6 months. However, it’s interesting to note that 2% of this group believes life will never go back to normal.
U.S ADULTS WHO INTEND TO VOTE IN 2020, HAVE A WORSENED VIEW OF TRUMP AND IDENTIFY MOST WITH THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
Who are they and what is their sentiment surrounding COVID-19?
This group of 11.3 million constituents is mostly made up of married men ages 45-54. They are most likely to reside in Nebraska or Alabama. 58% of this segment is concerned about the coronavirus to a moderate extent, specifically about whether there are enough ventilators, hospital beds and PPE for frontline workers at hospitals around the country. 58% of this group is concerned about the economic-related consequences of the coronavirus, while 40% are concerned about the health-related consequences. Despite their health concerns, these voters are also only washing their hands, practicing social distancing and avoiding touching their face to a small extent.
When it comes to social services, this segment varies in their support and opposition depending on the service. They’re 37% more likely to be even more opposed to expanding the social safety net since the pandemic started and 31% more likely to be opposed to Medicare for all. However, 63% of this group has stayed the same in their viewpoint on enhancing school free meal programs and a small sub-segment, 3%, have become more opposed on enhancing unemployment coverage. So, when do they believe life will return to normal? 35% believe it will take 2-3 months, 10% say more than a year and 2% say never.
What are their political preferences, habits and influences?
This group is 216% more likely than the average U.S. voter to have voted for a Republican candidate in the past. In 2016, this group was 173% more likely to have voted for Donald Trump. In 2012, they were 176% more likely to have voted for Mitt Romney. This group voted for Trump in 2016, but presently 219% more likely to be unsure about how they feel about him as this year’s Republican candidate due to the pandemic. The crisis has caused their support to waiver, with 42% unsure about their level of excitement for voting in this year’s Presidential election.
HOW RESONATE CAN HELP YOU WIN BIG
Voter sentiment is evolving rapidly. Resonate provides AI-driven data designed to better understand, segment, personalize message opportunity and target voters in near real-time. Our voter models update once a day to capture the unique and fluid sentiment of voters in times of crisis. Resonate is the only data intelligence company closely tracking COVID-19 voter sentiment to help direct strategy and messaging in real-time.
Download Reopening America: Up-to-the-Moment U.S. Voter Sentiment During the Pandemic today to learn insights that will help your campaign plan for the unprecedented weeks and months ahead.