Battleground Breakdown: North Carolina’s Swing Voters and Primary Dynamics in 2024

North Carolina’s status as a battleground state is deeply rooted in its historical significance. Traditionally a Republican stronghold, the state has witnessed a significant political shift in recent years. The 2008 election marked a turning point when Barack Obama narrowly won the state, signaling a new era of competitiveness. Since then, North Carolina has been a closely contested state that has demanded heavy investment and surgical strategies.

Data behind the battleground: Almost a million swing voters

Resonate’s AI-driven voter models are currently tracking 925K voters in North Carolina whose only behavior classifies them as likely swing voters in 2024. In total, our models are picking up a total of 5.1M registered voters in North Carolina. So as of today, about 18% of North Carolina voters should be thought of as swing voters.

Now consider that Trump beat Biden in North Carolina in 2020 by about 74k votes. It’s safe to say that beyond the primary, whatever way this large swing voter population swings will decide the fate of candidates up and down the ballot.

So who exactly are these 925K swing voters in North Carolina and what do they care about?

The data show that this audience is 12% more male and the majority are middle aged with 46% aged 35-54.

Compared to the average North Carolina voter, North Carolina swing voters are higher earners and likely more educated.

It comes as no surprise that 75% of the swing voter population in North Carolina consider themselves as Independents. Republican and Democrat affiliation is roughly equal amongst this audience, with 10% and 11% respectively.

From a messaging standpoint, campaigns in tight races are going to need to know why these swing voters vote a certain way. Our data show that when compared to the average voter in North Carolina, the swing voter is more likely to pick their candidates based on bipartisanship, government spending, and education policies. Job creation and homeland security also rank at the top of the list.

The North Carolina swing voter audience is available for immediate targeting across all programmatic digital channels, including CTV.

North Carolina Republican Primary: There are ∼42K Republican voters who are still undecided on their presidential choice.

Resonate models show that out of the 1.5M Republicans in North Carolina, about 42K of them remain undecided on who they would support in the presidential primary.

Of the 1.5M Republicans in North Carolina, our models indicate that 1.2M of these North Carolina Republicans are likely to vote in at least half of presidential primaries.

For Republican campaigns that need to optimize budgets and only reach high turnout voters, this is your audience.

The top candidate issues for the frequent North Carolina primary voters are foreign policy, homeland security, and government spending.

Where do North Carolina Democrats stand on Biden?

In advance of the state’s primary, where Biden is the only Democratic candidate on the ballot, our voter models show that of the 1.9M North Carolina Democrats, 1.5M of them are currently supportive of Biden.

Our models are also picking up another smaller audience of 487K North Carolina Democrats who remain persuadable on the president.

If Biden and the Democrats want to take back the Tarheel state, understanding and having the ability to effectively target each of these audiences with the right messaging will be critical to turning out the vote across the board.

The above audiences referenced are just a few of hundreds of voter audiences that campaigns can build, analyze and immediately activate with Resonate. Let us know what voter segments you absolutely need to win in 2024 and we’ll devise the targeting strategy that’s built to engage and persuade!

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