Key Takeaways:
- Consumers are adjusting grocery behaviors because of inflation and tariffs.
- Using consumer data helps you see which shoppers are most impacted and how their mindsets shift.
- Applying predictive consumer insights enables brands to align media, messaging and activation quickly.
- Two key segments: SNAP recipients and frequent grocery‑store shoppers—both behave differently.
- Retail & CPG marketers can use this data to drive relevance, not just price wars.
Why Economic Volatility Demands Smarter Consumer Data
Summary:
- Tariffs and inflation are pressuring grocery purchasing.
- Basic essentials like food cannot be deferred, making this a critical consumer category.
- Brands must move from reactive to proactive using predictive consumer insights to stay relevant.
Summer 2025 has seen heavy pressure on household budgets—tariffs, rising import costs, and inflation are squeezing wallets. For brands in CPG/retail, especially groceries, the implications are significant. Essentials can’t be deferred, so consumer behavior shifts rapidly. By leveraging robust consumer data, brands can map which segments are most impacted and anticipate their next moves. With predictive consumer insights, you don’t just see what happened—you see what’s likely to happen next. That gives you a strategic edge in media planning, message timing and product innovation.
Segment 1: SNAP Recipients – A High‑Risk Grocery Audience
Summary:
- Over 38 million Americans receive SNAP benefits and face elevated food‑insecurity risks.
- They are three times more likely than the average consumer to worry about eviction.
- Financial strain means they rely heavily on consumer data‑driven segmentation for outreach.
This segment is among the most vulnerable in the grocery ecosystem. They’re under pressure from rising prices and benefit rule changes, and their behavior shifts differently than more affluent shoppers. For example: 49% of SNAP recipients in this group make $25K or less annually, 17% have gone into debt to manage financial strain. They also have higher sensitivity to price, brand‑trust, and values such as resilience and community. For marketers, targeting this group effectively means using predictive consumer insights—understanding not just income and purchase behavior, but values, stress signals, and media consumption. Activation might include partnerships with local grocers, value messaging around staples, and loyalty programs that speak to their higher-risk mindset.
Segment 2: Frequent Grocery Store Shoppers – Mid‑Income, Brand‑Loyal, Adaptive
Summary:
- 81.8 million frequent grocery shoppers make five or more trips per month.
- 84% of them earn $150K or less annually (so not ultra‑premium).
- They over‑index for brand loyalty—but will switch once price thresholds are hit.
Unlike SNAP recipients, this group is less about survival and more about value, consistency, and brand preference. Only 16% changed brand loyalty because of a price increase; 34% haven’t taken any action despite inflation. Their behaviour signals an opportunity for brands to retain loyalty by reinforcing values like reliability, sustainability, and quality—not just cost. Using consumer data, you can identify membership or loyalty card users; using predictive consumer insights, you can anticipate which shoppers are nearing a brand‑switch threshold. Messaging that emphasizes “trusted brands you’ve always relied on” or “quality you don’t have to compromise” will perform well.
Why This Matters for Retail & CPG Marketers
- With rising costs and shifting sentiment, you can’t rely just on category data—you need psychographics, motivation, and real‑time behavior.
- Predictive consumer insights enable targeted activation across channels before mass behavior shifts.
- You can reduce cost‑per‑conversion, increase relevance, and gain share by aligning audience, message and media dynamically.
In volatile times, the brands that win are those that anticipate change, not just react. By using live consumer data and layering in motivational drivers and trigger events, marketers can move from broad segmentation to precision. For instance, if your data shows a cluster is about to switch brands due to price stress, you can proactively message them with value offers before they act. This kind of agility saves budget and improves ROI. It also elevates your brand to trusted partner status—rather than just another discounting competitor.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are predictive consumer insights?
Forward‑looking data that uses behavior, psychographics and intent to forecast what consumers will do next—so you can target with precision and timing.
How can consumer data help in grocery retail?
It lets you segment shoppers by risk factors (price sensitivity, benefit reliance, brand loyalty), anticipate shifts, and tailor messaging for the right moment.
Is this applicable only for low‑income shoppers?
No. While segments like SNAP recipients are highly price‑sensitive, mid‑income frequent shoppers also benefit from predictive targeting based on loyalty thresholds and psychography.
How quickly can you act on this kind of data?
With platforms like Resonate Ignite, you can move from insight to activation immediately—not months. That speed is critical in volatile categories like groceries.
Get the data you need to understand not just how your audience is behaving, but why. See the Resonate difference for yourself: Reach out to schedule a consultation with a data expert today.
