A growing number of high-profile US actions and international flashpoints — from engagements in Venezuela to discussions about Arctic strategy around Greenland — have made foreign policy decisions more visible. They’ve also become harder to separate from domestic political considerations for American voters, who are increasingly being asked to evaluate questions of enforcement, restraint, and trust in leadership.
Here’s what Resonate data tells us about how voters are processing these foreign policy signals, and what it may mean for political decision-making as the primaries and midterms approach.
The Country Is Evenly Divided on Enforcement vs. Restraint
At the highest level, the electorate is split evenly on the role the US should play globally:
- 50% of US adults (118.8M people) believe the US should enforce global order and liberty
- 50% (118.6M people) believe the US should limit involvement in foreign conflicts
It’s critical to remember that this data is a snapshot of a moment in time. As US foreign policy continues to evolve and events in Latin America and elsewhere play out, voter sentiment toward the stance they believe the nation should take regarding foreign policy will shift.
Trust Determines How Voters Read Foreign Policy Actions
When foreign policy activity increases, trust becomes the primary filter voters use to interpret US actions.
Resonate data shows the electorate is nearly evenly divided on who they trust to handle foreign policy:
- 36.5% of US adults (86.5M people) trust Donald Trump and the Republican Party
- 35.4% (83.5M people) trust the Democratic Party
- 28.1% (65.2M people) trust neither party or remain undecided
This near parity means foreign policy decisions are unlikely to be universally interpreted as either stabilizing or destabilizing. Instead, the same action can reinforce confidence for some voters while deepening skepticism for others, increasing polarization around competence rather than ideology.
Support for Stronger Foreign Policy Exists, But So Does Uncertainty
Nearly half of US adults say strengthening foreign policy and defense reflects their viewpoint:
- 48.1% (114.2M people) say it reflects their views
- 13.4% (31.8M people) say it does not
- 38.5% (91.5M people) are unsure
This large “unsure” segment highlights a critical dynamic: support for enforcement is often conditional.
Foreign Policy Is a Meaningful, If Not Dominant, Voting Factor
Foreign policy is a decisive issue for a substantial segment of the electorate:
- 18.4% of US adults (43.4M people) say foreign policy is the most important platform consideration when deciding who to support
- 15.4% (36.3M people) say foreign policy should be Congress’ top priority following the 2024 presidential election
In competitive races, these voters represent a meaningful audience whose engagement, turnout, and persuasion are directly influenced by how foreign policy actions are framed and understood.
What This Signals Heading Into the 2026 Primaries and Midterms
Resonate’s data shows that increasing US involvement abroad isn’t changing whether voters care about foreign policy; What’s changing is voter trust in leadership as a result of high-profile events and voter opinion on what actions the nation should take (if any) in tense situations, both of which influence actions on election day.
As events unfold:
- Trust in a particular political party to guide foreign policy may shift
- Enforcement vs. restraint becomes a defining value divide
- Foreign policy plays a larger role in candidate evaluation for engaged voters
For political campaigners, understanding where audiences fall on these dimensions and how changes in foreign policy reinforce or challenge those views will be critical in a crowded and volatile electoral environment.
Foreign policy may not dominate every race, but for millions of voters, it is shaping political decisions in real time.
Success in 2026 starts with the right data, and the right partner. With Resonate, you can devise hyper-focused, strategic campaigns that engage voters and propel you to a win. Ready to find out how to implement a data-driven blueprint in your own campaign? Schedule a consultation with a data expert today.
