Americans vote based on so much more than just “the issues.” When they’re at the ballot box on election day, they vote based on how they feel about a particular incident or a range of events, on what they’re worried about over the next few months, or just how they feel about a person. But even if they don’t like someone’s personality—as President Trump’s successful 2024 campaign demonstrated clearly—if the message they’re hearing resonates with their personal values, they might just give that person their vote.
Resonate is the only voter intelligence company to successfully predict the outcomes of the last three presidential elections. And we continue to keep our finger on the pulse of voter sentiment in the US to ensure political professionals can run campaigns based only on the most recent data. One of our new additions is favorability data on a range of public figures, from President Trump to Barack Obama, AOC, and Marjorie Taylor-Greene. We also have Personal Values Reports for every audience, so you can effectively tailor your messaging and creative to align with what they care about. In this blog, we’ll look at the favorability data for five 2028 presidential possibilities. We’ll also look at the data for two controversial government figures: RFK Jr., architect of sweeping changes at the HHS, and Elon Musk, the former chainsaw-wielding head of DOGE and now the proponent behind Grok, AI for government departments.
Ron DeSantis
The governor of Florida enjoys popularity in the Sunshine State: In 2022, he defeated his opponent by the state’s largest margin of victory for a gubernatorial election in 40 years. According to Resonate data, 36% of registered Florida voters view their governor favorably, 32% see him unfavorably, and just 19% are unsure.
On the national stage, however, it’s a different story. He withdrew from the 2024 presidential election, and Resonate data shows that just 19.3% of voters view him favorably, while 31.7% see him unfavorably. But what about the 23.2% who aren’t sure about Ron DeSantis?
Gavin Newsom
California’s governor made headlines when he clashed with President Trump over the sending of troops to Los Angeles back in June. Perhaps owing to his strong stance and his actions on other major, Golden-State-specific issues, like the housing crisis, he’s not that popular right now: 36% of registered California voters view him unfavorably, while 28% see him favorably and 24% are unsure.
Now, the 2028 presidential hopeful is working hard to stay in the spotlight and prepare himself for a possible White House run. On the national stage, as well, he’s still short of being a shoo-in: While 16.9% see him favorably, 25.8% do not. What about the 26% who aren’t sure how they feel?
JD Vance
The vice president and possible Trump successor is a highly visible figure whose name has so far been largely detached from big, polarizing legislation. Despite this, voters don’t particularly view him kindly: a significant 42.3%—100M people—see him unfavorably, while 24.6% see him favorably. 17.1%, however, are persuadable, and these 40.5M voters will prove crucial if Vice President Vance decides to run for higher office.
For these voters, wage increases not keeping up with the cost of living, losing a job (either yourself or someone in your household), and crime and violence are all top concerns for the next six months.
And what about at home? Among registered Ohio voters, 36% see Vice President Vance in a favorable light, 42% view him unfavorably, and 15% are unsure.
Kamala Harris
The former vice president has kept a low profile since losing to Donald Trump back in November, but rumors have begun to swirl about another possible run for the White House. She enjoys popularity in the Golden State: 48% of registered California voters see her in a favorable light, with 34% viewing her unfavorably and just 13% who are unsure. But what about her favorability across the United States in general? It’s mixed: 40% of voters see her unfavorably, while 38.6% view her in a more positive light. 16.4% of voters are persuadable—they’re unsure how they feel about Harris.
This audience is mostly made up of Independents (40%). 32% of voters unsure about Harris are Democrats. For the Republicans, their minds are pretty much made up: Only 15% are persuadable on the former VP.
Josh Shapiro
Another 2028 presidential hopeful, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro doesn’t currently have a lot of national name recognition. 13.1% of voters see him favorably, while 14.6% see him unfavorably—and these numbers are so small likely because, as shown by Resonate data, most people (42.9%) don’t know enough about him. Another 29.4% of voters—69.9M people—are aware of him but persuadable. As with Vice President Vance, this segment of voters will be crucial should Governor Shapiro choose to run for president in 2028 or beyond.
This audience is nearly evenly split between Democrats (32%) and Republicans (33%); 27% identify as Independents. Their top issue areas include controlling illegal immigration, improving prescription safety, costs, and access, and enacting gun control measures.
How’s he doing at home? According to Resonate data, 33% of registered Pennsylvania voters view their governor favorably, just 10% see him in an unfavorable light, and 25% are persuadable.
RFK Jr. & Elon Musk
While neither of these men are up for reelection or running for office, both continue to make headlines and to influence important facets of the US government. RFK Jr., as HHS Secretary, has made sweeping changes to the American government’s stance on vaccines and spearheads the MAHA movement. Also known as “Make America Healthy Again,” this movement has drawn attention to chronic disease and to the quality of food Americans are eating, has raised concerns about corporate influence on nutrition, and has inspired a wave of state-level action aimed at addressing health issues.
Elon Musk may no longer be a member of the government, but his well-publicized falling out with President Trump has not stopped him from having an influence. Recently, the Department of Defense entered into a contract to use his AI chatbot, Grok, and Musk has also announced his intention to start his own political party as a result of his dissatisfaction with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Musk doesn’t currently have the love of many of his fellow countrymen. A whopping 50.5% of voters view him unfavorably, while just 25.4% see him in a favorable light. RFK Jr., for his part, has better ratings: 29.3% of voters view him favorably, while 34.9% view him unfavorably.
This leaves the audiences of persuadables for each man. 18.4% of voters, or 43.7M, are unsure about Elon Musk, while 23.9% of voters, or 56.7M, are unsure about Secretary Kennedy.
The majority of voters who are unsure about Elon Musk are Republican (36%), followed by Independent (32%) and Democrat (24%). For these voters, the top issue areas are maintaining the Second Amendment, protecting online/internet privacy, and controlling illegal immigration.
Ready to see where your potential candidate stands in the eyes of voters? Schedule a consultation with a Resonate data expert today.
