Preparing for the 2022 Midterms: Leading with Data

The 2022 Midterm Elections are a lot closer than they appear on the calendar. If you’re looking for a sign, look no further than the legislative battles playing out in Washington today.

Historically, infrastructure bills have been an opportunity for politicians on both sides to take a bipartisan victory lap, create jobs back home, and boast about how Washington really works! But now, infrastructure is being held hostage by the liberal wing of the Democratic party with demands to pass a massive climate and social safety net bill. These party fractions playing out in the chambers will surface at the ballot box and it will be important for Democratic primary campaigns to understand what issues are landing with their target voters.

And what about Republicans? How does the minority part reinvent itself on the campaign trail? Taking shots at the Biden Administration won’t be enough, especially for candidates in tight primaries or swing districts/ states. What are the issues – at a state and district level – that are going to reinvigorate the GOP next year?

At Resonate, we understand the pain points of primary and general election voters in every corner of the country. We let the data Xray voters – down to the individual – to really understand the values, motivations, and policy positions that matter most in any given election. We don’t let our clients take a “see what sticks approach”. Our AI-Driven voter insights platform reveals thousands of insights on each individual voter, and then narrows that broader profile down to the very niche insights that are capable of winning their hearts, minds and votes.

For this piece, we are sharing real-time insights on a few 2022 Midterm segments, including a bellwether swing voter audience that has the potential to decide the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Race.

Virginia Swing Voters: A Segment to Keep Your Eye on this Month

Old Dominion is known as a battleground, but the last ⅔ gubernatorial and presidential elections were captured by Democrats. However, this year the polls have the gubernatorial race looking competitive.

Winning Virginia swing voters will be critical to paving the path to the Governor’s Mansion. At Resonate, our real-time behavioral algorithms are identifying these voters in real-time. Based on how they are behaving online, the data identified a niche swing voter audience and what will drive their vote this November.

Our platform has modeled over 490k likely swing voters in Virginia who are frequent voters in non-presidential elections, like off-year gubernatorial or midterms elections. We then compared this audience to your average registered Virginia voter who is also likely to vote in the 2021 Governor’s Race.

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Nearly 70% of our swing voter audience in Virginia are male. This is a group that values humility, individuality, and respect from others. They are also distrustful of the mainstream media. Your textbook political messaging will not win this voter segment. Messaging should get personal in the final days.

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Our platform told us that this swing voter audience in Virginia were 62% more likely to support Donald Trump in 2020, but if you solely based your messaging off this one insight, you’d miss the mark…

When it comes to the issues, swing voters in Virginia today are engaged and concerned about climate change. And when compared to your average frequent off-year Virginia voter midterm, our swing audience is more pro-choice and will select candidates based on their education policies. In the final month of campaigning, the governor candidates would be wise to hone in on these specific policies.

Want to know where swing voters in your target state or districts stand on the issues heading into 20220? We will walk you through the data.

Women Midterm Voters

Next, we analyzed women voters who are likely to vote in the 2022 Midterms. When looking at this national online – regardless of party affiliation – we see that pro-choice issues, gender equality, and gun control are the top issues heading into next year. This isn’t surprising, considering most of this audience is Democrat.

But, when we look at the 14 million Republican women who are likely to vote in the 2022 Midterms, things change immediately.

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virginia swing voter data - virginia midterm voter data - female swing voters virginia

The data show, unequivocally, that Republican women voters in the 2022 Midterms will vote on bedrock conservative issues like controlling illegal immigration, 2nd Amendment rights, and pro-life policies. For Republican campaigns, stick to the basics when mobilizing Republican women next year. You may be tempted to modernize your messaging with Republican women voters, but the data advises against it…

As seen in our values and psychological report, Republican women midterm voters are driven by their faith and traditionalism. They value the law, safety in their communities and earning respect from their neighbors.

Want to know what is driving Democratic women midterm voters heading into the 2022 cycle, just ask us!

Hispanic Midterm Voters

Need to win Hispanics in the 2022 Midterms? Then lead with your plan to combat climate change. We ran the data, and climate change concerns and engagement amongst Hispanics who vote in non-presidential elections was a top issue.

When compared to your average likely 2022 midterm voter, Hispanic likely midterm voters over index on climate change insights across the board. Nearly 80% believe climate change needs to be reduced and they are 26% more likely to engage on climate-related issues.

Obviously, immigration issues have been a hot issue this past year, but don’t underestimate the impact a savvy message on climate change can have when persuading Hispanic midterm voters. For Democrats that are pushing hard for the climate policies included in the budget reconciliation package right now, this is a talking point to take out to the campaign trail in 2022.

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The segments analyzed above are just a few of the thousands of micro-segmented midterm voter audiences that we can help you analyze and target immediately.

What are your top issues? What audiences sympathetic to your cause do you need to reach, educate and/or drive to action? Where do you need to build support We are here to help. Request a demo or give us a call at 855.855.4320.

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