The Independents’ Impact: A Closer Look at Super Tuesday Dynamics in California and Texas

Although Super Tuesday is approximately a month away, campaigns vying for success in one of the fifteen states slated to select party candidates have been gearing up for what could be described as imminent March Madness.

In the context of closely contested local races, one might argue that the hometown campaign journey is more demanding leading into March 5th. Candidates are tasked with carving out a distinct identity amidst the overarching national narrative, relying on their ability to resonate with the values and motivations specific to the local voters they need to win.

At Resonate, we separate ourselves from any other data and targeting firm with our unique ability to reach voters at the local level with precision accuracy.

Our AI-driven behavioral models track voters in real-time based on the political party they currently support, while closely monitoring the Independents and likely 2024 swing voters. We can make insanely accurate predictions on which voters are actually likely to vote in the Super Tuesday primary in any given state, and the values and motivations that are behind their candidate selections. We rely on this data to help the most competitive campaigns reach 51%.

To put out models to the test, we looked at a couple of states on the ballot this Super Tuesday.

3.1M self-identifying Independent California voters most likely to vote on Super Tuesday

For statewide offices and congressional elections, California now uses a “jungle primary,” meaning voters can choose any candidate, and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, irrespective of their party affiliation.

Given the unique nature of the jungle primary, our models have now located over 3 million voters who currently identify as Independents and have a proven track record of voting in presidential primaries. It’s important to note that the over 3 million California Independents have been captured by AI based on their real-time behavior, not static voter files from previous cycles.

The California Independents are 12% more male than female and the majority are between ages 35-54.

Compared to the average registered voter in California, the Independents tend to be higher on the income scale and more educated.

When it comes to the issues, these voters are more likely to select primary candidates based on bipartisanship, defense and homeland security, foreign policy and health care policy. Above all else, they demand that California candidates put partisan politics aside for the good of the people.

In the California race for U.S. Senate, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff holds a commanding lead ahead of the March 5 primary. In the final weeks, Representative Katie Porter and former baseball star Steve Garvey will likely battle for second place for a chance to advance to the general. That advancement will likely be on the backs of the Caifornia Independents who plan to hit the polls on Super Tuesday.

2.5M self-identifying Independent Texas voters most likely to vote on Super Tuesday

Texans will also take to the polls on Super Tuesday and the Lone Star State’s open primary system is proving to be a contemporary challenge for Republicans.

Regardless of political party, campaigns in Texas should be aware that our AI models have picked up an audience of 2.5M Texas Independents who are most likely to vote come March 5th.

Like we said for California, these millions of Texas Independents have been captured by AI based on their real-time behavior, not static voter files from previous cycles. Given the open primary system, winning this Independent audience will be critical for campaigns in tight races.

The Texas Independents are almost equal in numbers male and female and the majority are between ages 45-54, however we see a relatively broad spread across all age groups.

When compared to your average Texas voter, our models show that environmental policy is the most important factor for Texas Independents when selecting their 2024 primary candidates.

Similar to our California Independents, the Texas Independents will also demand that their candidates demonstrate bipartisanship leadership. Foreign policy also ranks at the top of the list for candidate selection.

The Takeaway

Our advanced models have revealed the vast potential among independent voters in delegate-rich states like California and Texas, underscoring the significance of innovative approaches in securing success. By embracing AI technologies, campaigns can navigate the complexities of voter sentiments, tailor messages with precision, and strategically position themselves to resonate with the diverse electorate that defines the Super Tuesday landscape. Let us know what voter segments you absolutely need to win in 2024 and we’ll devise the targeting strategy that’s built to engage and persuade!

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