New Report Reveals Four Predictions on Full-Price Buyers, Sale Timing, and Media Spend That Will Separate Winning Holiday Campaigns from the Rest
RESTON, VA, August 18, 2026 – Resonate, the leader in predictive consumer intelligence, has released its 2026 Holiday Spending Predictions a look at the consumer behaviors and motivations that will shape holiday retail performance this season.
The report draws on Resonate’s predictive consumer intelligence to push beyond surface-level demographics and understand what will motivate consumer shopping decisions and activity this year. The data suggests four predictions that will separate winning brands from competitors in a crowded holiday market:
- Full-price buyers will be a true competitive edge for brands
- Price won’t be the primary factor driving consumer behavior
- Selling savings won’t be enough of a differentiator
- Influencers will lead your media spend astray
Backed by Predictive Consumer Intelligence: The Data Behind the Guide
Most first-party brand data like demographics, past purchases, and geography is backward-looking; it can only tell you what customers have done before, not what they’ll do next or why. Resonate reveals the values, motivations, life-stage changes, and deeper preferences behind the demography, making it possible to anticipate person-level consumer behaviors for the holiday season.
Several key findings drawn from predictive intelligence inform the 2026 Spending report:
Finding 1: Year-over-year, holiday spending intent has barely moved.
The share of Americans who say they won’t spend anything on holiday travel sat at 54% in 2025 and remains at 54% this year. The share who’d already ruled out buying gifts held at 16% both this August and last. And the share planning to spend more has only ticked up from 19% to 21% in that same stretch. When the topline numbers repeat themselves year over year, the brands still using last year’s targeting will get the same results as last year, competing for the same static pool of demand instead of finding the customers whose plans have actually shifted.
Finding 2: Stable spending intent is hiding behind affordability fears.
Across every category Resonate tracked, a consistent share of shoppers say they have no plans to change their spending at all, regardless of price: 31.2% in travel and leisure, 30.6% in overall household spending, 28.2% in electronics and technology, 22.4% in luxury goods, and 17.5% in dining and personal care. A stable, price-indifferent segment exists inside every category, and generic, cost-driven messaging is likely to overlook it entirely.
Finding 3: The Holiday Sale is Table Stakes
The share of Americans planning to align a purchase with a sale is growing; in electronics, for example, customers that plan to take advantage of a sale has climbed from 21.5% in January to just over 23% ahead of the holiday season. But your Black Friday or Cyber Monday sale has become an expectation, and all your competitors know it, too. That’s not a reason to skip the sale this year, but the report suggests new tactics to make your sale an actual differentiator.
Finding 4: Shoppers buying online aren’t touching the channels getting the most attention.
Just 6% of these shoppers heavily engage with podcasts, and only 7% frequently use social media. This is a sharp contrast with the amount of marketing conversation around influencer and creator content. Media budgets chasing that conversation may be missing the channels where this audience actually spends its time.
What It Means for Brand Marketers
The predictions that emerge from this data provide an actionable roadmap for brand marketing teams looking to stand out during a period of high demand. It’s an especially invaluable tool for marketers building and executing campaigns right now.
“Every brand leader or agency partner knows the feeling of a campaign that technically launched but never really landed,” says Meredith Albertson, CMO of Resonate. “This report exists because I wanted the answer to a question every CMO asks going into the holidays: who’s actually going to buy, why they buy, and what will make them choose us instead of the competitor running the identical sale. This guide gives people in my position a real window into holiday shopping behaviors in time to take action.”
The Next Steps for Holiday Marketers
Taken together, the report’s four predictions point to the same conclusion: a single, generic holiday campaign risks losing money on both ends, discounting to buyers who would have paid full price, and missing the sale-anticipating shoppers a brand never distinguished from everyone else. Resonate recommends brands segment customers by intent and personal values rather than by channel, demographics, or transaction history alone, and reach full-price buyers early, before the promotional window opens and competitors start sending them discounts.
Access the full 2026 Holiday Spending predictions report HERE.
