Political media consumption across Pennsylvania is a reinforcement of the state’s role as an unpredictable battleground. A battleground that Trump won with a mere 0.7% of the vote. The Pennsylvania senate election will likely be a footrace to the plurality of the vote. Having real-time access to online voter behavior and the ability to target devices 1:1 provides key advantages in this midterm fight:
- Knowing where campaigns already have momentum and should centralize GOTV and mobilization efforts.
- Ability to locate high-population swing neighborhoods, counties and districts where persuasion efforts should be focused and tracked to understand how campaigns are moving the needle with key audiences.
- 1:1 personalized engagement– use AI to identify, understand and communicate with individual voters based on their behavior and most important policy positions, values and motivations.
Below, the wave of purple, with small splashes of red and blue, indicates that early sentiment amongst voters is falling to the middle of the scale. As leaders in voter intelligence, Resonate offers the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) to help you better understand and target voters, ultimately helping campaigns successfully navigate a historically complex electoral landscape.
Let’s deep-dive into Resonate’s real-time, measuring the extent of bias in media consumption across pivotal midterm states and districts. To start, we zoned in on battleground Pennsylvania. The Keystone State will play host to this year’s midterm bellwether on March. 13, where both parties are vying for an early victory in the PA-18 special election.
- Machine-learning technology, observing 10B online events daily, monitored all news consumed by individual devices located in Pennsylvania – at zip code scale.
- Automated URL and contextual analysis quantified the ideological slant of every publication along conservative and liberal lines.
- The proportion of bias in media consumption was calculated, at zip code level, by averaging the activity of all devices observed within each zip’s boundaries.
Understanding the Results
- The below map leverages color-scale to measure the average proportion of conservative news consumed per zip code – 0.2 (most liberal) to 0.9 (most conservative).
- For example: 0.3 color would mean on average 30% of a device’s behavior is conservative in that zip code (by extension, 70% on average is liberal).
- White space represents areas where census is too low to provide adequate data.
Pennsylvania 18 – Special Election March. 13
The PA-18 map provides telling insight in the final days. While we see bright areas of red throughout this historic Republican stronghold, there are significant amounts of purple to light-purple areas. The behavior we see down the stretch can inform strategic final-push GOTV efforts for both sides:
- The Republicans: they have major momentum in the Western and Southern parts of the district and successfully break purple waves in high population areas. GOTV messages should hit these red blocks heavily to ensure already engaged voters turn out next week.
- The Democrats: they’re winning the conversation in northern areas and have managed to have a moderating influence on district-wide behavior in a historically Republican monopoly, evidenced by mass purple blotches throughout the district. They should double-down where they have momentum and invest remaining dollars targeting large, moderately behaving areas where they have managed to weaken the Republican’s grip on the narrative.
Stay Tuned for More Resonate AI Behavioral Maps
In the following weeks, Resonate will be publishing a series of media bubble maps, like those seen in Pennsylvania, that leverage AI to understand on-the-ground behavior in the midterm’s most competitive states and districts. In the meantime, if you’re interested in learning more about real-time voter behavior and how you can target voters 1:1 with insights built for political persuasion, contact email@example.com.
Want to learn more about voter media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s recent presentation from the 2018 Reed Awards that provides a detailed look at the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics: Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.