There are less than 100 days until November 3. The Trump vs. Biden polls today looks a little like the Trump vs. Clinton polls did four years ago. Voters still need to wait another two months until they can size up Trump and Biden in a head-head match. There’s a lot of the game left.
Pollsters will tell you they’re more accurate this time around, and maybe they are, but who knows? They’ve said they’re accounting for biases, leveraging voter file data to proportionately call on both sides, and making assumptions that a voter is more likely to admit they’re voting for Trump the president than they would have been for Trump the candidate four years ago. Is this because Trump is less controversial now than he was in in 2016? One can only wonder.
Polls are snapshots, not crystal balls. Those with longer memories understand that a snapshot today can look a lot different a month from now.
The fact is, campaigns need to focus on winning in the now. If the election was held tomorrow, who are the voters you need to win today?
Resonate has modeled out this question with precision. Using a combination of the largest continuous online voter survey and billions of daily web events, we provide campaigns with the most accurate, up-to-the-moment voter sentiment based on how voters are behaving at this moment.
Four years ago, these same real-time behavioral models enabled us to eliminate bias from the data and the challenges associated with static polling. As a result, our models accurately predicted Wisconsin sliding to Trump just days before the election, while no major polls from 2016 showed Trump leading at any point in either of these decisive battlegrounds.
If the election were held tomorrow, August 5, 2020, here is one example of an audience we could help your campaign target today.
National: Self-identified registered voters who voted for Trump in 2016, but would vote for Biden tomorrow
The Resonate Ignite Platform has identified an online audience of roughly 10 million self-identified registered voters nationwide who voted for Trump in 2016 but would cast their vote for Biden if the election was held tomorrow.
21% of this entire audience, roughly 2 million voters, changed their voting intent for president as a direct result of the coronavirus situation.
When looking at this audience in its entirety, 60% self-identify as Republicans and roughly 30% as Independents. Only 35% of these voters supported Barack Obama in 2012.
Demographically, 80% of this audience is white and just about equal parts male and female. These are middle-class voters, largely without college degrees. When compared to the average voter, this audience is more likely to be religious, married homeowners.
When it comes to the issues, these voters choose candidates who vow to protect the nation, placing a premium on homeland security and defense policy.
For the Republicans, saying goodbye to these voters three months before the election is self-sabotage. For the Democrats, now is the time to welcome these sliders to the party and make sure they hang around until November.
Resonate is ready to help your campaign start winning now by immediately targeting decisive voter audiences, like the Trump-Biden sliders, with a winning message tailored to their values and motivations. The election is 90 days away, but you can start playing like it’s tomorrow.