Key Takeaways:
- Economic anxiety is widespread heading into Q4, but a meaningful share of consumers aren’t changing their behavior at all.
- The cuts that are happening are heavily concentrated in a few categories; they’re not spread evenly across the household budget.
- Grocery and utility spending are expected to increase for a large share of consumers, which is inflation passing through to necessities, not a sign of discretionary confidence.
It’s that time of year: You’re dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s on your Q4 campaign strategies and probably starting to think ahead to Q1. This last quarter is a make-or-break period for many marketers. Everything has to get done before everybody starts to “circle back after the holidays,” and that includes meeting (or, better still, exceeding) annual revenue goals.
That’s why now is the right moment to double-check your data: Do your campaigns match up with consumers’ plans for the next six months? Having the right continuously updated insights will ensure you’re not falling into the old trap of planning a campaign around who a customer was three months ago instead of right now.
In this blog, you’ll get the information you need to tweak those strategies and ensure your plans align with the customers you’ll be marketing to now through the end of the year.
What’s Top of Mind for Consumers in Q4?
Heading into the last quarter of 2026, consumers are anxious, and for many of them, financial concerns are paramount:
- 43.5% are worried about high gas prices
- 38.3% are concerned about the cost of healthcare
- 35.1% consider affordability to be a chief worry
The strategies you can take in light of consumer worries are numerous. Some brands have chosen to openly acknowledge these concerns in their Q4 messaging. Aldi, for instance, has focused its marketing on its low prices and offers a section at the top of their website homepage labeled “price drops.”
Is anxiety causing more consumers to spend less?
In short, the answer is no. At least, not right now. Across many categories, despite higher prices, a surprising percentage of consumers won’t be making any changes to their spending habits:
- 35.4% say they won’t decrease household spending in any category at all
- 30.5% report no planned changes to electronics purchasing habits
- 25.4% aren’t making any changes to their investment or retirement plans
- 23.4% aren’t changing their luxury or non-necessary spending at all
While at first glance, this data might suggest that big percentages of consumers are making spending changes, a deeper dive reveals a more nuanced story. The percentages in the list above are often the largest share of consumers in each category; while other people are making changes, they’re divided across a wide variety of coping strategies.
For instance, let’s look at changes to electronics purchasing habits. We know 30.5% aren’t changing anything. What are the others doing?
- 19.5% are delaying planned electronics purchases
- 16.9% are still buying, but they’re opting for lower-cost items
- 17.5% are putting their money towards repairs of existing products instead of buying new ones
- 22.9% are also still buying, but they’re buying fewer electronics overall
- 22.6% are saving their money for sales events
- 16.2% haven’t decided how they’ll handle future purchases yet
- 7.1% are buying products earlier to get them before costs go up
This example is representative of other categories, and it makes an important point: When we say “30.5% are still business as usual,” that doesn’t mean that the other 69.5% have stopped spending money. It simply means they’re spending, but in different ways.
Spending cuts are tied to discretionary, out-of-home spending
Some categories are seeing high percentages of consumers who are making trades to afford increased prices. This is especially true of discretionary, out-of-home spending:
- 35.5% say they’ll cut dining out if conditions worsen
- 24.8% will ease back on vacation spending
And these aren’t the only two discretionary categories where consumers are either intending to decrease spending or have already started. Over 23% percent are pulling back on buying clothes and accessories, while 43.2% have decided to go out less. Over 38% are purchasing cheaper store or alternative brands for their regular (defined as monthly) purchases.
These insights naturally give rise to the question: Well, where is their money going? The answer is groceries and utilities. Over 38% of consumers expect to increase grocery spending over the next six months, the largest increase of any category, and 27.7% expect utility and energy bills to rise. Both of these are necessities, and neither is a category Americans can easily cut.
How Can I Update My Q4 Marketing Plans to Better Engage Consumers?
Here are three ways marketers can update their Q4 plans, based on the spending behavior data specifically:
1. Split “hesitant” audiences into two distinct groups
The data reveals two groups of people pulling back. The first is the group who is delaying a particular decision. For instance, 23.8% postponed a vacation, 19.2% delayed a vehicle purchase, and 9.1% put off new investment decisions. They haven’t decided against their purchase. They likely still want it, but economic conditions, general anxiety, and/or life factors have influenced them to say, “Not right now.” Then there are the people who are just outright decreasing their spending in a particular category. Unlike their counterparts in group one, they’ve already made a decision.
A “delayer” is still in-market and needs a reason to move forward now. A “decreaser” needs a reason to reconsider their choice entirely. Sending both groups the same “don’t wait” urgency message wastes the message on the group that’s already checked out and undersells the group that just needs the right incentive to move forward.
2. Build campaigns around the specific coping behavior each segment is using
The data shows consumers aren’t responding to price pressure in one uniform way. Just take a look at some of the varied insights:
- 38.4% are switching to cheaper store or alternative brands
- 30.9% are using coupons more
- 21.5% are buying in bulk
- 11.0% have used Buy Now, Pay Later to make purchases
These represent four different ways to cope with higher prices, and each one points to a different kind of offer. A brand competing against the “switching to alternative brands” behavior needs a value or quality argument, not just a price cut. A brand facing bulk-buying behavior might do better bundling or offering larger pack sizes. And for higher-consideration or higher-ticket categories, surfacing a BNPL or flexible payment option directly in the campaign may address the actual barrier better than a straightforward discount would.
3. Engage the “no change” segment with specific, personalized messaging
Across nearly every category measured, a meaningful share of consumers report no planned change in behavior at all:
- 48.8% not delaying any major purchase
- 35.4% not decreasing any household spending
- 30.5% making no changes to electronics habits
- 25.4% making no changes to investment plans
- 23.4% seeing no change in luxury spending
This segment is separate from any single group actively cutting back, and they don’t need to be won over with discount-driven messaging. Build a Q4 campaign plan just for them. Focus on new products, loyalty recognition, or premium positioning instead, keeping in mind that these consumers are willing to pay full price for products that have the attributes they’re seeking: safety, high quality, and practicality.
Ready to Find Out Where Your Consumers Stand in Q4?
Reaching those end-of-year revenue goals requires you to market to who your customers are right now, not who they were three months ago. Resonate’s continuously updated predictive intelligence doesn’t just track consumer trends as they change from month to month. It also allows you to better understand the customer behind the purchase and to predict what that person will do next, ensuring that you’re ready with an offer at the time they’re in-market.
To learn more about specific holiday trends, check out Resonate’s Holiday Predictions Report. To find out what your exact audiences will be doing during the fall and winter, schedule a consultation with a data expert today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this data mean consumers are pulling back broadly this Q4?
Not evenly. The data shows real anxiety, but actual planned spending cuts are concentrated heavily in a few categories, dining out and travel especially, while a meaningful share of consumers report no planned changes in most categories measured.
Should CPG and grocery brands treat rising spend intent as a positive demand signal?
No. Rising grocery and utility spend intent (38.6% and 27.7% respectively) mostly reflects consumers absorbing higher prices on necessities, not increased purchasing ambition or confidence.
What’s the single biggest opportunity in this data?
The uncertainty segment. On investment decisions specifically, 41.9% of consumers say they’re unsure how to respond to market volatility, a larger group than any single action-based response, which is a real opening for advisory and reassurance-based messaging.
