Arizona has rightfully earned the political spotlight as the nation’s newest and arguably most exciting swing state. Once a Republican bastion, home of John McCain and the conservative godfather, Barry Goldwater, Arizona now wears a shade of purple reminiscent of its summer sunsets.
To see how quickly Arizona turned competitive, you just have to look at the recent presidential results over the past decade or so. Bush won Arizona twice, but then Trump carried a victory by just 4% in 2016. In 2020, Biden closed out Trump in the desert with 0.3% of the vote!
For state and local campaigns looking for primary victories in Arizona, having the necessary voter intelligence and targeting strategies in such a dynamic and rapidly evolving landscape can be challenging.
That’s why, at Resonate, we scaled our 2022 Primary Election Voter Landscape to Arizona, allowing our AI to identify decisive Democratic and Republican primary voter segments based on the niche insights that are informing their candidate choices TODAY in the current 2022 environment.
This data goes far beyond party affiliation or historical behavior, so campaigns can accurately analyze and target consequential segments with precision in the final days.
Below, we’ll show examples of how Resonate’s AI-driven 2022 Primary Election Voter Landscape has identified new Democratic and Republican primary voter segments with the potential to decide the winners come August 2nd.
Meet the Arizona Blue Dog Democrats
Resonate has identified 454k Blue Dog Democrats in Arizona. Arizona is now one of the most urbanized states in the nation, and younger multicultural voters are beginning to play a huge role in reshaping the political landscape. This segment should be a critical focus for competitive Democratic campaigns.
These Arizona Blue Dogs are not your same Blue Dogs from the Clinton years. Rather, this is a younger (33% of this entire audience is between the ages of 25-34), more urban, multicultural segment that, when compared to other registered Arizona Democrats, are much more likely to choose candidates based on bipartisanship, education policies, and homeland security.
Also, compared to your average Arizona Democrat, the Blue Dog Democrat believes the Biden Administration should focus more on police reform, gun control, and racial equality.
What’s perhaps most interesting about the Arizona Blue Dog Democrats (relative to your average Arizona Democrat) is that they heavily over-indexed in passion for urban issues like police reform and racial equality. However, these voters most value bipartisanship and believe that far-left liberals and the mainstream media present threats to the country at large.
Lastly, when we looked at what is physiologically driving the Blue Dog in Arizona, we found faith and religion, as well as being humble and leading an exciting life to be their top drivers.
Meet the Arizona Compassionate Conservatives
Given Arizona’s reputation as a swing state that has swung suburban Republicans to the other side since the Trump years, the Compassionate Conservatives are a can’t-miss segment for Republican campaigns.
The over 450k Compassionate Conservatives in Arizona have stuck with Republicans, but they’re a group that campaigns will want to solidify heading into the primaries.
It’s not necessarily “Never Trump” with this group, but they won’t hide their disappointment when Trump’s political style is the topic of discussion. These voters are the most socially liberal Republican segment, and economically, they’re pro-large infrastructure projects and free trade deals. Think of your “Chamber of Commerce” Republican.
Compared to the average Republican in Arizona, the Compassionate Conservative is less than 15% likely to choose a candidate just because they’re a Republican (no surprise there). When selecting a candidate, the Compassionate Conservative is much more concerned with their military and defense platform, homeland security, and reforming entitlements (at least 30% of these voters are retired).
Regarding their values and physiological drivers, the Compassionate Conservative is much more concerned about the environment than your average Republican. They’re also more than likely to prioritize the equal treatment of others and caring for family and friends.
Given the decline in Republican voters over the years in Arizona, the Compassionate Conservative segment should be a must target segment for Republican campaigns that need to go beyond MAGA country.
Interested in learning more about the Arizona Blue Dog Democrats, the Compassionate Conservatives, or other primary voter segments that will directly impact the upcoming elections?
Download your copy of the 2022 Primary Election Voter Landscape.