Key Takeaways:
- 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Texas politics. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term, aiming to become the state’s longest-serving governor, and enters the race with an $87M campaign war chest.
- Meanwhile, the primary contests to succeed him are unusually crowded, with 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans throwing their hats in the ring.
- Adding to the stakes, all 38 of Texas’ U.S. House seats are on the ballot, and recent redistricting has made several districts far more competitive than in past cycles.
These dynamics are unfolding against the backdrop of a rapidly changing Texas electorate. Between the 2010 and 2020 Census, Texas added more than 4 million residents—enough population growth to earn the state three additional congressional seats. That growth has only accelerated in the years since, with hundreds of thousands of Americans relocating to Texas post-COVID, many from states like California, further reshaping the ideological and demographic makeup of the electorate. At the federal level, the cycle is also marked by an unusually high level of turnover, with six Texas US House members opting to retire, opening the door to highly competitive primaries in multiple districts.
While Texas has been a reliably Republican state for decades, 2026 is poised to serve as a referendum on President Trump’s second term and on internal divisions within the GOP itself. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress and will be fighting to defend their margins, while Democrats face an uphill battle in a traditionally GOP-leaning state. At the state level, recent primaries have underscored growing ideological fault lines, with 15 Republican incumbents losing renomination in 2024—many over their opposition to Governor Abbott’s school choice initiative during the 88th legislative session. Ultimately, success in Texas will hinge on which campaigns best understand their voters, and which can most effectively engage and mobilize them ahead of the March 3 primaries.
This blog will take a deep dive into Texas swing, Democratic-leaning, and Republican-aligned non-presidential primary voters, offering actionable insights to help campaigns engage each audience more effectively.
What Texas Non-Presidential Primary Swing Voters Want from Political Candidates
These 1.2M Texans are registered to vote, identify as swing voters, and vote in non-presidential primaries at least half the time.
Nearly half of these swing voters, 48%, tend to align with Independent platforms. 26% tend to align with the Republican Party, and 24% find the most common ground with the Democratic Party.
The top issue areas for Texas swing voters are:
- Promoting gender/race equality
- Improving prescription safety, costs, and access
- Defending traditional marriage
Their top perceived threats to the US include:
- Former President Joe Biden
- White supremacists
- Election fraud
For these voters, influential sources of information for elections include gut instinct, broadcast news programming, and their friends and family.
When considering who to vote for, the following are top requirements and dealbreakers for Texas swing voters:
- 25% want the candidate they vote for to increase online privacy laws
- 22% want their candidate of choice to cancel some or all student loans
- 48% consider cuts to Medicare a dealbreaker
- 53% consider cuts to Social Security a dealbreaker
Their perceptions of representation in government:
- 34% believe the US would be somewhat better off with more Christians in office
- 25% think the nation would be much worse off with more atheists or non-religious Americans in office
- 37% believe the US would be somewhat better off with more women in office
The top TV networks for Texas swing voters include:
- ESPN
- Fox
- NBC
What Texas Non-Presidential Primary Democratic Voters Want from Political Candidates
These 4.3M Texans are registered to vote, tend to vote Democrat, and vote in non-presidential primaries at least half the time.
For these voters, the top issue areas include:
- Reducing climate change
- Enacting gun control
- Improving prescription safety, costs, and access
Their top perceived threats to the US include:
- President Donald Trump
- MAGA Republicans
- Russia
Their top influential sources for information about elections include:
- Cable news programming
- Broadcast news programming
- Social media
When considering who to vote for, the following are top requirements and dealbreakers for Texas Democrat voters:
- 32% want their candidate of choice to offer amnesty for Dreamers
- 38% require any candidate they vote for to agree to pass Medicare for all or some kind of single-payer healthcare program
- 11% consider increasing border security measures a dealbreaker
- 45% want their candidate of choice to guarantee the right to an abortion
Their perceptions of representation in government:
- 13% of Texas Democratic voters think the US would be much better off with more Muslims, Jewish, Buddhist, or Hindu candidates in office
- 9% believe the nation would be somewhat worse off with more veterans or national security professionals in office
- 25% think the US would be much better off with more Black, Hispanic, Asian, or Native American politicians in office
The top TV networks for Texas Democrats include:
- Fox Sports 1
- Cartoon Network
- Lifetime
What Texas Non-Presidential Primary Republican Voters Want from Political Candidates
These 3.9M registered Texan voters tend to vote Republican and vote in at least half of non-presidential primary elections.
Their top issue areas include:
- Maintaining the Second Amendment
- Defending traditional marriage
- Strengthening foreign policy and defense
Their top perceived threats to the United States include:
- Former president Joe Biden
- Progressive liberals
- The mainstream media
For Texas Republicans, talk radio is the top influential source of information for elections. They also pay attention to social media influencers and attend campaign events, including rallies.
Their perceptions of representation in government:
- 10% of these voters feel the nation would be much worse off with more women in office
- 38% feel the nation would be much worse off having more LGBTQ Americans in office
- 29% believe the US would be much better off with more Christians in office
When considering who to vote for, the following are top requirements and dealbreakers for Texas Republican voters:
- 33% consider passing legislation that increases LGBTQ rights a dealbreaker
- 17% are less likely to vote for a candidate who has worked in politics for 15+ years
- 36% consider canceling some or all student loans a dealbreaker
- 17% think passing Medicare for all or some kind of single-payer healthcare program is a dealbreaker
The top TV networks for Texas Republican voters include:
- Fox News
- The CW
- TV Land
Success in 2026 starts with the right data and the right partner. With Resonate, you can devise hyper-focused, strategic campaigns that engage voters and propel you to a win. Ready to find out how to implement a data-driven blueprint in your own campaign? Schedule a consultation with a data expert today.
