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Primary Season Reality Check: Where Four Critical Voter Blocs Stand Right Now

April 21, 2026
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Primary Season Reality Check: Where Four Critical Voter Blocs Stand Right Now

As voters flock to the primary polls and November 3 becomes less of a distant reality and more of a date strategists are actively planning for, it’s helpful to catch up on what influential individual segments of voters are doing, thinking, and feeling. Back in December’s Voter Trends Report, we featured insights on four interesting voter groups using our continuously updated political intelligence: Young Voters, Hispanic Voters, Trump Moderates, and Registered Non-Voters. Now, at about the halfway point in primary season, let’s check in on them and their top concerns, as well as their sentiments on where the country is going, how President Trump has been doing, and how the US should be handling the conflict in Iran. 

Young Voters 

These 38.6M registered voters are between the ages of 18 and 34 and represent a crucial demographic for all political candidates.  

Right now, Resonate’s political intelligence shows that most of them feel the country is going in a negative direction: 

  • 38% strongly agree that the US is going in the wrong direction 
  • 18% somewhat agree with this sentiment 
  • 23% say both equally or are unsure 
  • 11% strongly agree that the country is on the right track 
  • 9% somewhat agree with the above sentiment 

For the nation’s youth, affordability and leadership in the federal government top the list of concerns for the next six months. Resonate data shows 38% worry that wage increases aren’t keeping up with the rising cost of living, while 37% are concerned about corruption in the US government. Another 35% fear a US economic slowdown or recession. 

Young Voters are split when it comes to whether they view President Trump in a favorable or unfavorable light. Forty-one percent aren’t sure how they feel about his personality and behavior, while 46% are dissatisfied and just 12% are satisfied. Forty-three percent are unsure of their sentiments on his political policies, while 44% are dissatisfied and 14% are satisfied. 

And what about their sentiments on the conflict in Iran, which is, at the time of writing, stretching into its seventh week? Thirty-three percent of Young Voters perceive rogue nuclear states like Iran as a threat to the US. Forty-five percent, however, believe that the United States should let Israel and Iran settle their own disputes. Twenty-six percent are unsure of their stance, while 11% believe the US should provide military aid and equipment to Israel. Seventeen percent agree with deploying troops and/or engaging in the region with bombs and drones.  

Here’s what Resonate’s political intelligence shows about Young Voters’ media consumption habits. Their top TV networks include: 

  • Science Channel 
  • Adult Swim 
  • Disney Junior 

The Takeaway for Political Campaigners: 

Campaigns that speak directly and credibly to economic anxiety and institutional trust are more likely to connect with this demographic than those leaning on cultural or partisan identity alone. At the same time, the significant share of Young Voters who remain undecided on President Trump’s personality, policies, and foreign engagement signals that this bloc is genuinely persuadable, making precise, motivation-driven outreach far more valuable than broad demographic targeting. 

Hispanic Voters 

There are nearly 30M voters in this crucial swing group audience, which shifted in President Trump’s favor during the 2024 presidential election. The question for political campaigners is: After an action-packed year and a half in which affordability has been a continuing concern and immigration enforcement was involved in several high-profile incidents, which party will they vote for this year? 

Here’s where Resonate’s audience of Hispanic Voters stands on whether the nation is going in the right or wrong direction: 

  • 9% strongly agree the country is on the right track 
  • 13% somewhat agree that the country is on the right rack 
  • 13% say both equally or are unsure 
  • 18% somewhat agree the US is going in the wrong direction  
  • 47% strongly agree the country is going in the wrong direction 

For Hispanic Voters, safety and government leadership are top of mind when they think of their most pressing concerns for the next six months. Thirty-eight percent are worried about corruption in the US government, while 37% are concerned about poor leadership. Another 37% worry about crime and violence. 

As of mid-April 2026, here’s where Hispanic Voters stand on President Trump’s personality and behavior: 

  • 37% aren’t sure how they feel  
  • 53% are dissatisfied 
  • 10% are satisfied 

As for his political policies: 

  • 37% are not sure what they think 
  • 48% are dissatisfied 
  • 14% are satisfied 

Forty percent of Hispanic Voters perceive rogue nuclear states like Iran as a threat to US. Twenty-eight percent believe the United States should let Israel and Iran settle dispute on their own. Another 51% are unsure where they stand. Eight percent believe the US should provide military aid and equipment to Israel, while 14% think the United States should deploy troops and engage the region with bombs and drones. 

Here’s what Resonate’s political intelligence reveals about Hispanic Voters’ media consumption habits. Their top TV networks include: 

  • Univision 
  • Telemundo 
  • Unimas 

The Takeaway for Political Campaigners: 

Campaigns that lead with concrete accountability and public safety commitments will find more traction with this audience than those leaning on economic optimism or the status quo. And with 53% dissatisfied with President Trump’s personality and behavior, 48% dissatisfied with his policies, and roughly 37% still undecided across both measures, this 30-million-voter bloc remains genuinely competitive, making precise, Spanish-language outreach through their top-indexed media (Univision, Telemundo, Unimas) a higher-value play than broad digital targeting. 

Trump Moderates 

Resonate’s audience of Trump Moderates is made up of 11.8M individuals who voted for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election and self-identify as “moderate Republicans.” Here’s where they stand on whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction: 

  • 29% strongly agree that things are on the right track 
  • 27% somewhat agree things are on the right track 
  • 21% both equally or are unsure 
  • 14% somewhat agree that the nation is going in the wrong direction 
  • 10% strongly agree the nation is going in the wrong direction 

For the next six months, Trump Moderates are mostly concerned with affordability. Thirty-six percent are worried about a US economic slowdown or recession, and another 36% fear their taxes increasing. Thirty-five percent are concerned with crime and violence. 

For the Trump Moderates, there’s a definitive split between the president’s personality and his political policies. Over half (53%) of this audience isn’t sure how they feel about his personality and behavior, and 25% are outright dissatisfied. Just 22% say they’re satisfied with the president as a person. When it comes to his political policies, however, these voters feel differently: 48% are satisfied with President Trump’s political policies, while 41% are not sure and just 11% are dissatisfied. 

Nearly half (47%) of the Trump Moderates view rogue nuclear states like Iran as a threat to the US. Just 27% believe the United States should let Israel and Iran settle their dispute on their own; 38% think the US should provide military aid and equipment to Israel. Seventeen percent favor outright action like deploying troops and engaging in the region with bombs and drones, and 19% of Trump Moderates are unsure what path to take when it comes to conflict in the Middle East. 

The Trump Moderates’ top TV networks include: 

  • Hallmark 
  • Golf Channel 
  • Fox News 

The Takeaway for Political Campaigners: 

With economic anxiety dominating the Trump Moderate mindset, campaigns have a narrow-but-clear window to move this 11.8-million-voter bloc by speaking directly to pocketbook security and public safety rather than ideology or party loyalty. The fact that these are voters who backed Trump in 2024 yet harbor significant recession and tax anxiety suggests they are not locked in: Campaigns that can credibly connect their economic platform to this audience’s specific financial fears stand the best chance of holding or flipping them. 

Registered Non-Voters 

Finally, there’s Resonate’s audience of registered non-voters, 41.1M individuals who did sign up to vote but who do so in non-presidential elections less than half the time or who abstain entirely. Here’s where they stand on whether the United States is going in the right or wrong direction: 

  • 7% strongly agree that the US is on the right track 
  • 16% somewhat agree the US is on the right track 
  • 19% say both equally or feel unsure 
  • 14% somewhat agree that the US is going in the wrong direction 
  • 44% strongly agree the US is going in the wrong direction 

The Registered Non-Voters’ concerns for the next six months are somewhat similar to those of the Young Voters. Forty percent are worried about corruption in the US government, 38% have concerns about poor leadership in the federal government, and 37% fear an economic slowdown or recession. 

When it comes to President Trump’s personality and behavior, just 8% of these voters are satisfied. Nearly half (48%) are dissatisfied, and 44% aren’t sure where they stand. The jury is similarly out for 50% of the Registered Non-Voters when it comes to the president’s political policies. Twenty-two percent are satisfied with the president politically, and 28% are dissatisfied. 

Thirty-nine percent of the Registered Non-Voters perceive rogue nuclear states like Iran as a threat to US. Fifty-one percent say the United States should let Israel and Iran settle their own disputes, 24% are unsure what to do, 13% support providing military aid and equipment to Israel, and 11% are in favor of deploying troops and/or engaging with bombs and drones. 

The Registered Non-Voters’ top TV networks include: 

  • Science Channel 
  • Hallmark 
  • Lifetime 

The Takeaway for Political Campaigners: 

Registered Non-Voters are not disengaged because they feel content. Rather, they are disengaged despite feeling discontent, which means the activation challenge for campaigns is about giving this audience a credible reason to believe their vote will actually change the things they are already worried about. Reaching this audience requires meeting them where they are with direct, accessible economic and accountability messaging, not political positioning they have already tuned out. 

Ready to See the Resonate Difference for Yourself? 

From economic anxiety to evolving issue alignment, voters are forming opinions faster than campaigns can react. The primary-focused April 2026 Resonate Voter Trends Report gives you a clear, data-backed view of where voters stand today, and where they’ll head next, so you can plan smarter, message sharper, and move with confidence. 

Want to learn more about the audiences featured in this blog, or want to get insights on a custom audience? Schedule a consultation with a data expert today.