The last time there was a California Gubernatorial recall election, a Republican bodybuilder from Austria became governor. Is incumbent Gavin Newsom’s September recall election different from the 2003 recall that got the Terminator elected? Sure, it is. But the fact is special elections like these inherently create an opportunity for surprise.
Think of specials like the California recall as an onside kick in the final minutes of a football game. The receiving team (candidate with an obvious lead) should recover the ball. But one bad bounce…you take your eye off that ball…and the game immediately changes.
Consider that the last statewide special in Democratic stronghold Massachusetts put a Republican in the Senate. In 2017, a special election in crimson red Alabama sent a Democrat to the Senate. Surprise, surprise…
You’re playing at a severe disadvantage if you treat special elections like the California Gubernatorial recall election, like any normal race and rely solely on traditional data sources.
The political environment in California right now is unique: Trump, the Republican villain/Democratic turnout machine, is gone, a statewide mask mandate may come back, and voter fatigue is real just nine months after a presidential election satisfied hungry California Democrats.
At Resonate, it’s situations like these where we turn to our AI-driven voter analysis and targeting to help campaigns see clearly and squeeze out victory. We ask our models to process what humans simply can’t: tens of billions of daily online behavioral data points that monitor voter sentiment and intent, accounting for individual-level shifts caused by political news and events playing out across the state daily. Paired with the largest continuous national survey of Americans, we can help you get to know voters down to their values, motivators, political opinions, media diets, and more.
With this real-time, granular data, we can see things like:
- Who are the California voters that changed their voting intent for governor because of the evolving coronavirus situation and are now likely to support a Newsom challenger?
- Who are the California Democrats who frequently vote in presidential elections, but tend to sit out special elections like a recall?
- Who are the California swing voters who frequently vote in non-presidential elections like a standalone gubernatorial election?
The above examples are just a few of the endless combinations of hyper-targeted audience segments Resonate can dissect and activate immediately. Below is a sample of the data we can garner for you.
Who are the California voters that changed their voting intent for governor because of the evolving coronavirus situation and are now likely to support a Newsom challenger?
Resonate’s California voter models combine survey data and real-time online behavioral activity to continuously monitor evolving sentiment and intention, like choice for Governor.
Whether a voter changed their opinion of Newsom back in November when he was photographed maskless at a Napa winery while urging voters to stay at home, OR just recently when rumors emerged that Newsom may bring back a statewide mask mandate. Our models captured—and are actively capturing—those sentiment changes down to the individual level.
Resonate models show that, right now, there are close to 1M addressable California registered voters online who are likely to vote for one of Governor Newsom’s challengers because of the coronavirus situation….AND…of those voters, 44% are Democrats.
Campaigns should target these voters immediately with a message tailored to their values and motivations. Below is a quick political snapshot of this critical online voter segment, compared to a baseline of other CA registered voters.
Some other key insights on this voter audience:
- They’re more likely to vote in non-presidential elections than your average California registered voter
- They’re slightly more fiscally and socially conservative
- They tend to be most concerned about illegal immigration and entitlement reforms
Who are the California Democrats who frequently vote in presidential elections, but tend to sit out special elections, like recalls?
This is an important segment for California Democratic campaigns. Newsom has a strong approval rating and obviously California is a major Democratic stronghold, but are enough Democrats motivated to turn out in September without the threat of Donald Trump on the ballot? How can Democrat campaigns identify and motivate all those Democratic voters from November to again show up this September?
Resonates models have identified 1.4M addressable registered Democrats online who frequently vote in presidential elections BUT are not frequent voters in non-presidential elections.
What makes these voters different from California registered Democrats who frequently vote in both presidential AND non-presidential elections?
From a demographics standpoint, these voters are much younger. Roughly 70% of infrequent gubernatorial voting Democrats are millennials and about 40% of them have a lower household income of $50k or under.
From a political perspective, this voter segment is more fiscally and socially moderate than the active Democratic gubernatorial voting segment. This younger segment is psychologically driven by being accepted and recognized by their peers, and they most value safety in their communities.
What do you say to these younger Democrats to make them turn out in September?
Emphasize the importance of keeping their communities safe. Then promote party unity to this younger generation who desires to be accepted and respected by those who they most identify with. Make September 2021 as important as November 2020.
Here’s more of our data on this audience, as compared to a baseline of Californians who frequently vote for POTUS and Governor.
Who are the known California swing voters who frequently vote in non-presidential elections, like standalone gubernatorial recall elections?
To round out the California data sample, we looked at known California Swing Voters who frequently vote in non-presidential elections.
These voters could be missing from your voter file. These voters like to mix things up and vote based on the issues or their gut, rather than by party affiliation.
For obvious reasons, these 2M California Frequent Swing Voters could prove critical come September.
Reaching known swing voters in the California Gubernatorial Race could be the difference-maker if the recall margins begin to narrow in the final months. We know exactly where these voters are online and can serve your message to any segment within 24 hours. Don’t sleep on these 2 million voters. Act now!
Are you invested in the California Gubernatorial recall election? How can Resonate help your campaign win the most voters?
The California voter segments analyzed above are just a few of the many micro-segmented, niche voter audiences that we can help you analyze and target immediately.
What audiences sympathetic to your cause do you need to reach, educate and/or drive to action? Where do you need to build support?
We are here to help. Request a demo or give us a call at 855.855.4320.