Most brands are asking themselves the same question: After a year of high prices, record-low sentiment, and cost-cutting, how will consumers spend this holiday season? The answer: That depends on how well brands understand and connect with them.
In some ways, things are business as usual. Despite high prices and concerns about affordability, sizeable percentages of consumers will be plowing forth full steam ahead on their purchases. Just over 25% of Americans won’t be changing any of their holiday spending habits, for instance, and that 1.2% of travelers who were willing to spend $10,000 or more on holiday travel back in July still haven’t budged from that commitment. And the number of people who won’t be spending anything on gifts at all is still pretty small: It’s under 20% of the population, which means over 80% will be buying presents for loved ones.
In other ways, however, consumer behavior has shifted. As we pointed out during the summer, consumers are really no longer looking at price as the determining factor in whether or not they buy. Instead, they’re considering value, and shifting their spend specifically toward what matters to them most. For instance, let’s say you have a consumer who likes adventure vacations and typically bought herself some new clothes a couple of times a year. When she feels like everything is costly, she might decide she’s fine with the clothes she has at home and spend less on them because she wants to keep going on trips. She values the feeling of freedom she has when she travels more than she values a new dress.
Business success this holiday season relies on brands understanding these types of values and reaching the right people with the right message in the right channel at the right time. And to achieve all those goals, you need data that’s both continuously updated and closes the gaps in your first-party data. Predictive consumer intelligence reveals the why behind consumer behavior, ensuring you’re marketing to who your customers are right now: a must if you’re going to engage them this holiday season.
Let’s dive into where consumers stand on a few holiday-adjacent issues just before the season gets into full swing.
How Do Consumers View the Holiday Season?
As a brand, you might rightly view the “holiday season” as all of Q4, the last chance you have to reach your annual revenue goals before the year closes out. But for consumers, the holidays are about their loved ones.
Over 78% of Americans expect to spend the holidays with immediate family. Another 25% will be with friends, and still another quarter will be with extended family. This data suggests holiday marketing that’s framed around family is right on the money and aligned with consumers’ view of what the holiday season is really all about.
But while you’re crafting marketing campaigns around family and friends, don’t forget about two often-overlooked groups. Just over 5% of consumers will spend the holidays with neighbors, instead of family, and an even bigger percentage, 10.2%, will be by themselves. This means marketing built around a full house of related guests won’t resonate with them. So it’s a better idea to include some campaigns that are focused on sharing the season with members of the community, like neighbors, and on taking care of yourself and spending some time alone to relax and recharge.
Think about working in smaller or non-traditional gatherings, talking about self-gifting, or offering fulfilling solo experiences. That’s the way you’ll really reach everyone who could be in-market.
What Will Consumer Spending Look Like During the 2026 Holiday Season?
Consumers are engaging in a variety of financial coping behaviors to afford presents this holiday season. Over 37% have decided to still buy gifts but to try to spend less overall, while nearly 30% will be using coupons or discount codes at checkout. Another 23.3% will shop exclusively on sale days.
Each of these behaviors owns a big percentage of consumers, so segment your marketing accordingly. Send specific messaging to the group spending less, to the group using coupons, and to the audience looking forward to sale days.
How can you differentiate your messaging? The consumer behaviors driving each of these groups to buy are different. Take a look at what Resonate data says about the product attributes each is seeking. For instance:
- Holiday coupon shoppers want innovative, exciting, and rewarding products
- Holiday sale shoppers want durable, high-quality, energy-efficient products
- Those spending less want the best-looking, most durable, innovative products
There’s another group you should consider as well: the 10.9% who plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL). These consumers are perhaps feeling the financial pinch more keenly than their counterparts, but they still want to participate in the holiday season. These consumers are best reached with messaging that reframes flexible payment as a smart way to enjoy the season fully. Make the BNPL option itself part of the campaign by surfacing it prominently in gift guides and product pages so these shoppers see a clear path to getting what they want for the holidays without the sticker shock stopping them mid-browse.
Finally, don’t forget the full-price shoppers mixed in with the holiday spenders. Just over a quarter of consumers say they aren’t taking any actions to alter their spending this holiday season. These shoppers are looking for products that are enjoyable, trustworthy, and produced sustainably. They also tend to prioritize brand name (42%) over price (39%). Lean into these values with your marketing and treat this group as independent of those who are seeking a sale or using coupons so you don’t waste your budget sending discounts to everybody. That’s not what the full-price shoppers are prioritizing.
Where Will Consumers Do Their Holiday Shopping?
The marketing news headlines are full of words like “content creator” and “influencer,” both of which probably automatically make you think of social media. Indeed, businesses spend a significant amount of money on social media advertising every year.
However, social media isn’t where consumers are doing their holiday shopping. Resonate data shows social commerce sits at just 10% of the market, and it’s not a growing category. Instead, consumers will be heading to more traditional channels to buy their gifts and treats. Nearly 58% plan to shop in brick-and-mortar stores, while 54% plan to shop online through a secondhand site like Amazon or eBay. Direct-to-manufacturer online shopping trails at 32.2%.
Here’s the takeaway: Despite the ubiquity of the internet and the ease of apps that let you purchase in just a few clicks, American consumers still like the idea of bundling up (or not, depending on where they live) and heading to the mall or the shops for a day of holiday shopping. Parcel out your budget evenly between encouraging people to head to the store to enjoy the hustle and bustle of winter shopping and suggesting they buy all their gifts from the convenience of the couch with their favorite TV show on in the background. This split more accurately reflects what consumers will be doing.
Ready to Find Out What Your Customers Will Be Doing This Holiday Season?
This holiday season, your advantage over the competition will come from a deeper understanding that goes deeper than consumer behavior and tells you why they’re making their buying decisions.
For a deeper look at the full picture, including more of the trends shaping this holiday season, read the Resonate Holiday Trends Report. And if you’re ready to find out how your own customers are likely to behave this season, not just consumers broadly, schedule a consultation with a Resonate data expert to see what predictive consumer intelligence can reveal about the people actually driving your Q4 results.
