Key Takeaways:
Discover the data-driven insights driving Ohio’s May 5 primaries. Learn what motivates 3.3M swing and base voters, from top “dealbreaker” issues like the ACA and immigration to the specific media channels where candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Sherrod Brown must win:
For Democratic Campaigns (1.7M Voters): The “Safety Net” Mandate: 52% of these voters are primarily concerned with federal funding cuts to essential services. Messaging should prioritize the protection of public programs.
For Republican Campaigns (1.6M Voters): The “Border & Breadbasket” Focus: Immigration is the dominant concern (53%), followed closely by healthcare costs (46%) and recession fears (45%).
The list of candidates who have been certified to run in Ohio’s primaries on May 5 is long. It features some big names, like Vivek Ramaswamy, a former Republican presidential candidate turned OH gubernatorial hopeful, ex-US Senator Sherrod Brown, Jon Husted, the incumbent US Senator, and Amy Acton, a former state health director. Then there are a variety of locally known names; all told, some 20-plus candidates in total are running for seats that include state governor, secretary of state, Ohio Supreme Court, state auditor, state treasurer, and attorney general.
Ohio’s voters have a lot to decide in May. And before that, Ohio’s political campaigners have a lot of work to do to move the needle in their direction. In the Resonate 10 High-Impact Primaries to Watch report, we took a deep dive into what’s driving Ohio’s swing voters. Here, we’ll take a look at the motivations, sentiments, and behaviors of Ohio Republican and Democratic non-presidential primary voters.
Engaging Ohio’s Democratic Primary Voters
There are 1.7M registered Ohio voters who align with the Democratic party and vote at least half the time in non-presidential primaries. Their top issue areas include:
- 52% are worried about the federal government cutting necessary services/funding
- 50% are concerned about rising fuel/oil/energy prices
- 50% worry about poor leadership in the US government
Their top perceived threats to the US include MAGA Republicans, white supremacists, and Donald Trump.
36% of OH Democratic Primary voters consider repealing the Affordable Care Act a dealbreaker for any candidate, and they may not look favorably on anyone who either voted to roll back ACA subsidies last year or supported the measure. Another 35% require any candidate they vote for to pass new clean energy or environmental regulations; 28% want their candidate of choice to commit to passing legislation that upholds LGBTQ rights. And 12% are more likely to vote for someone who doesn’t take donations from corporations.
17% of these voters think the US would be much better off with more Muslim candidates in office; 19% think the same of LGBTQ Americans, and 17% hold this belief about atheist or non-religious candidates. 14% believe the US would be much worse off with more Christians in office.
Ohio Democratic Primary Voters’ Influential Sources of Election Information
Reaching these voters with the right message at the right time starts with knowing where they get their information from. Resonate data shows that political party affiliation, broadcast news/programming, and cable news/programming are the top three sources of election information for this audience. Their top TV networks are as follows:
- MSNBC
- National Geographic
- PBS
- CNN
The Takeaway for Political Campaigners:
Messaging should lead with clear commitments on state-sponsored public services and funding and on lowering energy costs. Note that sizable percentages of Ohio Democratic voters also treat ACA protection (36%), new environmental regulation (35%), and LGBTQ protections (28%) as dealbreakers, and a notable minority is explicitly motivated by rejecting corporate money (12%). Their threat perceptions (MAGA Republicans, white supremacists, Trump) suggest that contrast and accountability frames can mobilize, but the persuasion opportunity is strongest when paired with a positive “protect rights, expand inclusion, deliver progress” agenda. Channel-wise, persuasion and reinforcement should focus on TV and news ecosystems (party cues, broadcast news, cable news), with particular emphasis on MSNBC, PBS, CNN, and even National Geographic to meet these voters where they already look for election information.
Engaging Ohio’s Republican Primary Voters
In the state of Ohio, 1.6M registered voters align with the GOP and vote at least half the time in non-presidential primaries. For this audience, the top concerns for the next six months include:
- 53% are worried about controlling illegal immigration
- 46% are concerned about healthcare costs or debt
- 45% worry about an economic slowdown or recession
Their top perceived threats to the US are, in some ways, an inverse of those of their Democratic-leaning counterparts. They include former president Joe Biden, progressive liberals, and illegal immigration or a lack of border security.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given their list of perceived threats, amnesty for Dreamers is a dealbreaker for 37% of this audience; they are unlikely to vote for a candidate who supports this. 20% are also less likely to vote for a candidate who has been in politics for 15+ years and may view such an individual as an entrenched bureaucrat rather than an experienced politician. 29% require any candidate they vote for to increase fossil fuel production and support the opening of new oil and gas pipelines.
57% of Ohio Republican primary voters believe the US would be somewhat or much worse off with more LGBTQ Americans in office. 28% think the nation would be much worse off with more atheist or non-religious political candidates, while 22% think things would be much better with more Christians in office.
Ohio Republican Primary Voters’ Influential Sources of Election Information
According to Resonate data, here’s where these voters turn for information about upcoming elections and the candidates running in them:
- Campaign events/rallies
- Political party affiliation
- Debates
The Takeaway for Political Campaigners:
This is a large, high-propensity Ohio GOP primary bloc that can decide nominations—especially in non-presidential cycles—by rewarding candidates who focus on lowering taxes, controlling immigration, and making healthcare more affordable. The “dealbreaker” signals are the roadmap: amnesty for Dreamers is a hard stop for 37% and nearly 3 in 10 require increasing fossil fuel production and supporting new pipelines, so ambiguity or triangulation on energy or immigration creates real downside risk. There’s also a clear anti-establishment lane (20% are less likely to back candidates with 15+ years in politics), suggesting that outsider credibility, reform framing, and results-first language can matter as much as ideology. Finally, because this audience says it’s most influenced by campaign events/rallies, party cues, and debates, campaigns should prioritize high-visibility earned moments, like rallies and debates.
Winning over voters starts with having the right data. Resonate offers a whole-human understanding of the US adult voter population that goes beyond the limited, fragmented view offered traditional data providers and the voter file. Download our report on the Top 10 High-Impact Primaries you should be paying attention to, or reach out to a Resonate campaign specialist to build a custom audience that meets your needs today.
