As a follow-up to our most recent blog on the U.S. Senate midterm outlook, we wanted to assess the state of the U.S. House heading into a pivotal midterm year and the role big data will play in battleground victories this cycle.
A Fiercely Competitive Midterm Landscape
Both parties’ quest for control of the House needs to go through the roughly 20 battleground districts scattered throughout the country this year, which is only about 5% of all House midterms. And if the 2016 House elections are any indication, these fights will go the distance. Last cycle, approximately 26 battleground races had an average margin of victory of less than 6%.
Strategies that Drive Battleground Victories
The battleground districts are fiercely competitive because winning here means winning the elusive swing voter. This presents a great opportunity for campaigns that understand how to go beyond traditional GOTV tactics that rely on party-line turnout to engage critical independents that will ultimately decide their fate.
At Resonate, our bread and butter is helping campaigns locate and persuade niche voter blocs that carry a candidate over the finish line. By combining census scale, voter research and massive online behavioral models, we can put a microscope on a district and accurately predict over 7,000 targetable attributes for each individual voter.
The result is an electoral profile that goes far beyond static insights, like party affiliation and voter propensity, and gets to the core values and motivations that drive a voter to support a candidate. If a campaign is able to customize their creative and messaging around these deep-level attributes, they ensure optimal engagement through a precise targeting strategy that will maximize media budget.
Real Time Voter Data in a 2018 Toss Up Race
Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district, which covers the south Twin Cities metro area, had a margin of victory of just 1.8% in 2016, making it one of the most heavily contested seats in the country. And the battle for MN-02 is on again this year…
We leveraged Resonate’s real time voter data to take a look at the voters inside MN-02 to gain a better understanding of how campaigns can win their hearts and minds this year. Here’s some of what we found:
- 17% of the district’s voters have been swing voters in recent elections.
- Swing voters here are driven by their closeness to family and trust from others. On policy, they believe strongly in a simple tax code and over half of this audience will vote for a candidate based on healthcare policies.
- Republicans in the district are very concerned with maintaining traditional energy sources compared to statewide Minnesota Republicans.
- Democrats in the district are very engaged in pro-choice issues compared to statewide Minnesota Democrats.
Making Big Data Work for You this Cycle
The ability to identify and communicate with nice voter blocs by leveraging personalized attributes, like the ones listed above or a unique combination of thousands of other deep-level insights, will lend a tremendous competitive edge for campaigns battling in the tightest of races.
If your campaign is interested in seeing how quickly and easily big data and predictive analytics can be deployed this cycle to identify and persuade the right voters – with the right message – contact us.