After news that a seat in the Senate was flipped in Pennsylvania and Catherine Cortez Masto won in Nevada, the Senate Democratic caucus assured at least 50 members in 2023. And, while it seems like the world is carrying on with business as usual, Resonate voter data shows why Georgia’s runoff election is still important.
A Quick Recap of What Happened in Georgia
Election results showed Warnock slightly ahead of Walker, with 49.4% of the vote to Walker’s 48.5%. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver ultimately prevented the candidates mentioned above from getting the majority by racking up 2.1% of the vote. Unlike many other states, Georgia is one of two states that requires a candidate to win 50% of the vote or face a runoff.
For Democrats already in control of the Senate, here are 3 key reasons winning the 51st seat matters:
- The Senate’s power-sharing agreement. Remember the 2021 compromise deal that gives the parties equal membership on committees? With 51 seats, Democrats can govern in the Senate as a proper majority.
- Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Over the past two years, the known centrist Democrat leaders have sometimes balked ahead of key votes. With a 51-seat majority, party leaders could move forward anyway.
- The 2024 cycle. There will be 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2024. Democrats will be defending 23 of them, compared to 10 for the Republicans.
In this runoff election, every vote counts. Resonate’s AI-powered voter intelligence has been tracking voter sentiment through gradual and sudden changes in the political landscape that can give our clients the winning edge in competitive races. We uncover what’s driving voters to the polls, the issues that matter most to them now, and how to reach them with the right message on the right platform. Here’s what we found on Georgia’s registered voters.
Registered Republican Voters in Georgia
Our models identified 1.6 million online registered Republican voters in Georgia (available for immediate targeting). To win their support, both candidates must understand the issues most important to these voters:
- 44% support defending traditional marriage
- 67% support controlling illegal immigration
- 31% support pro-life issues
When it comes to supporting candidate platforms specifically, they’re more likely to value bipartisan cooperation over polarization in government. Another important observation is that while 83% of registered Republicans vote red, a significant 14% are persuadable. Given split-ticket voting in the Georgia midterms, even registered partisan voters are up for grabs.
Where can political campaigns reach them in the few weeks we have left before the December 6 runoff? One of the most influential sources of information for Georgia Republicans is talk radio. They spend most of their social media time on Facebook and watch Fox News regularly.
(Source: Resonate Ignite Platform, November 2022)
Resonate data also shows Republicans are not a monolith. 33% of registered Georgia Republicans fall under the Ultra-Maga group in Resonate’s 2022 Voter Landscape. These high-turnout Republicans don’t trust mail-in voting but will vote early. They’re the group most likely to disapprove of Biden’s policies and believe they are the top reason for inflation.
We can help you target and reach niche voter segments like Ultra-Maga voters with accuracy and speed. Talk to us.
Registered Democrat Voters in Georgia
Our models identified an even larger population of registered Democrat voters in Georgia, also available for immediate targeting. The three issues most important to these voters are:
- Enacting gun control
- Promoting civil liberties and race/gender equality
- Supporting pro-choice issues
When it comes to supporting candidate platforms specifically, they’re more likely to value a focus on education and tax policies as well as strategies for job creation initiatives. Another important observation to make is that while 89% of registered Democrats vote blue, 7% are still persuadable.
Where can political campaigns reach Georgia’s registered Democrats before the runoff election? Two of the most influential sources of information for these voters are advertising (their top-read newspaper is the New York Times) and social media (particularly on Twitch, Twitter, and LinkedIn).
(Source: Resonate Ignite Platform, November 2022)
Like Georgia Republicans, there are niche groups of Georgia Democrats that may seem similar in the voter file but are uniquely engaged. The two largest niche Democrat voting segments we found in Georgia were the Disenchanted Liberals (28%) and ConservaDems (23%).
- Disenchanted Liberals make up our youngest segment, comprised largely of Gen Z. As the name insinuates, Disenchanted Liberals are distrustful of both parties.
- ConservaDems are largely made up of millennials and majority-minority voters. This group likes to share their opinions publicly, and you can find them on Instagram.
Both are available for immediate targeting with Resonate.
Who’s missing? Who gets the 2.1% in the runoff election?
Some registered voters who want to vote in the runoff election didn’t make it to the polls in November. The 2.1% of Georgia voters who supported Chase Oliver may be persuadable but may also choose to abstain in December. One thing is for sure: because the stakes are so high and the margins so close, both campaigns will benefit from turning out the vote.
Winning on a shoestring requires a hyper-specific get-out-the-vote targeting and messaging strategy leading into the December 6th runoff. It will come down to finding the voters who are somehow still on the sidelines but represent niche electoral segments that campaigns can still convince to get out and vote for their candidate – if they have the right message.