Supreme Court Politics: Uncovering the Winning Issue

A most tangible voter issue

Last week, the country lost a legal giant and pillar of American democracy. May your memory be for a blessing, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

In an increasingly partisan world, RBG had the rare talent to transcend politics and lead with conviction. However, her vacancy on the court that holds the greatest influence over American life has now brought the country to its political pinnacle.

For campaigns nationwide, up and down the ballot, the playing field has fundamentally changed roughly a month outside the election. For voters, the future balance of the Supreme Court is a palpable issue that carries the ability to cut through the political clutter, crystallizing the importance of candidate choices on everyday American life.

Campaigns will have to get abortion issue messaging and targeting right

Perhaps no other issue is now more consequential than the fate of abortion law. Once at the heart of our country’s culture war, 2020 candidates can now win or lose based on how they handle targeting and messaging on an incredibly personal and emotional issue.

Resonate insights have uncovered the sheer scale of just how influential the abortion issue is based on its ability to swing and energize massive swaths of 2020 voters

Before we dive into the data, it’s important to recognize why abortion is a 2020 pivotal issue that campaigns – on both sides – need to get right when engaging voters.

In a single term, President Trump has appointed two justices to the Supreme Court, however, in both instances he was replacing conservative justices. This time, the president’s frontrunner to replace the liberal RBG is a legal superstar of the religious right with a record that suggests a strong opposition to the abortion precedent established in Roe v. Wade for almost 50 years ago. Consider that just this past summer, RBG was a deciding vote in a 5-4 decision that struck down a state law to regulate abortion access – invoking Roe as precedent.

The fact is this: regardless of who the nominee is, if the balance of the court shifts to 7-2 in favor of conservative justices, the possibility of the majority overturning – or severely weakening – Roe v. Wade is very real. This fact alone holds the power to dictate any election with a tight margin.

Here’s where things get interesting

Before the death of RBG, abortion was a casual issue at best in this election. Now with the issue at center stage, Trump will more so take on the role of the “pro-life” candidate and Biden the ”pro-choice” candidate. We can expect this trend to also take shape in down-ballot races.

Resonate’s real-time behavioral models show that, as of today, there are millions of self-identified registered voters who are not voting for the presidential candidate who they most align with on abortion issues

The data has uncovered two unique sets of voter audiences who actually don’t intend to support the candidate they align with on abortion issues. Given the current Supreme Court situation, this is a major development for campaigns.

The savvy campaign can now message these voters and explain why it’s critical that they change their voting intention, using abortion issues as the common denominator. This is an opportunity for campaigns to make a human-level, deeper connection that’s actually worthy of swinging votes. But who exactly are these voters?

Meet 41.6 million pro-choice voters who do not intend to vote for Biden

If the election were held tomorrow, there are 41.6 million self-identified registered voters online who support pro-choice policies but would not vote for Biden. In fact, 66% of this entire audience plans to vote for Trump, while the remaining segment plans to either support a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

This voter audience is driven by a commitment to equality, the anchor of RBG’s liberal legacy, including gay and lesbian rights and women’s issues. When compared to the average voter, these voters are:

• 18% more likely to value accepting those who are different
• 16% more likely to value living a life of excitement, novelties, and challenges
• 17% more likely to value obeying laws and fulfilling obligations

Meet 37 million pro-life voters who do not intend to vote for Trump

If the election were held tomorrow, there are 37 million self-identified registered voters online who support pro-life policies but would not vote for Trump. In fact, 70% of this entire audience plans to vote for Biden, while the remaining segment plans to either support a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

This voter audience is conservative across the board on almost all other social and economic issues including healthcare, immigration, and taxes. When compared to the average voter, these voters are:

• 28% more likely to support confirming conservative justices
• 34% more likely to be psychologically driven by their devotion to God
• 29% more likely to be motivated by maintaining traditions

Only Resonate is tracking this type of real-time, issue-based intelligence that can help campaigns immediately adapt to the current political realities; segment, target and message to persuade the voters they need to win (or just shouldn’t lose) come November. Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary data for online targeting. Resonate has you covered.

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