Are you winning the swing vote?

/in , , , /by

Undecided voters can decide elections. If your campaign’s in a close race down the stretch, you understand the importance of putting dollars behind identifying and targeting known swing voters well before they head into the voting booth. With just three weeks remaining until Election Day, engaging this critical segment with a message worthy of their vote needs to be a part of any savvy campaign strategy.

At Resonate, we put our dynamic artificial-intelligence driven models to work to find and target swing voters – from the national to local level – with surgical precision. With just a few clicks in our voter insights platform, we’re ready to analyze swing voters across thousands of the most relevant political persuasion insights and target them wherever they are online. This is how winning is done.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s driving the 2018 midterm swing voter on the national scale and in a couple of key 2018 election battlegrounds.

National Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 16M

Compared to the average registered U.S. voter, national swing voters are:

  • 22% more likely to be passionate about local issues
  • 48% more likely to be 65 years or older
  • 47% more likely to lean fiscally conservative

Bonus insight: at least 50% of this audience will vote in the midterms primarily because they feel it is their civic duty. 12% will vote because of state-level concerns.

Pennsylvania Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 743K

Compared to the average registered Pennsylvania voter, Pennsylvania swing voters are:

  • 38% more likely to be motivated by maintaining traditions
  • 97% more likely to want President Trump to identify and address foreign trade abuses
  • 57% more likely to believe water conservation is a top societal concern

Bonus insight: 50% of this audience voted for Donald Trump in 2016.

Wisconsin Swing Voters – Likely to Vote in 2018 Midterm

Audience size: 387K

Compared to the average Wisconsin voter, Wisconsin swing voters are:

  • 75% more likely to believe improving infrastructure and transportation is a top priority
  • 33% more likely to be accepting of those who are different
  • 60% more likely to support enacting congressional term limits

Bonus insight: 25% of this audience voted for a candidate besides Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in 2016.

If your campaign needs to engage and win swing voters in the final 3 weeks, contact Resonate’s Campaign Hotline today to get started immediately. Don’t leave the swing vote to chance, start engaging and winning now!

CONTACT CAMPAIGN HOTLINE

Your Campaign Can Influence Voter Behavior by 30%. Here’s How.

/in , , , /by

In December 2017, Democratic candidate for Senate, Doug Jones, implemented a revolutionary targeting tactic that influenced the online behavior of tens of thousands of voters a week before the election.

During the lead up to the election, Resonate’s data science team identified 250k voters who predominately engaged with news and reporting from conservative sources. Collectively, the constellation of sites and publishers comprising this conservative media bubble proved to be a formidable shield, and prevented the Jones campaign from courting the non-traditional voters necessary to win in too-close-to-call elections.

That reality changed when the Jones campaign took action and leveraged Resonate data to infiltrate the conservative media bubble and deliver a message to voters that was otherwise completely absent from their digital lives. These voters were served a pro-Jones video in the week leading up to Election Day. Amongst the 80,000 video engagers, we observed a 30% increase in liberal news browsing relative to untargeted voters inside the media bubble.

Fast forward – we’re 4 weeks out from the midterms and Resonate data scientists have identified targetable media bubbles (conservative and liberal) in districts and states throughout the country. This is voter targeting 2.0. Launch a sophisticated targeting campaign with Resonate that puts your messaging right in front of these voters. Impact the recommendation algorithms of just 2% of voters and you can drastically influence the actions they take now and on November 6.

Let’s take a look at some real life examples of digital media bubbles in battleground Ohio. Specifically, we’ll look for voters trapped in these bubbles who are sympathetic to the opposition based on relevant insights in the Resonate platform.

Ohio Conservative Media Bubble
Full audience size: 1.9M online adults

  • Identify as Democrat: 19% (361,000)
  • Support raising the minimum wage: 37% (703,000)
  • Voted for Clinton: 19% (361,000)

Ohio Liberal Media Bubble
Full audience size: 1.2M online adults

  • Identify as Republican: 26% (312,000)
  • Oppose Obamacare: 39% (468,000)
  • Voted for Trump: 25% (300,000)

The above audiences identified, numbering in the hundreds of thousands, are receiving the majority of their election-related news from partisan sources that dominate their feeds. A sophisticated digital campaign that moves a small percentage of these voters could be a major difference maker in races throughout Ohio and other key states and districts this cycle.

Are you ready to incorporate this strategy into your voter targeting efforts and begin driving real, impactful changes? Contact our Campaign Hotline today. Our models are pre-built, dynamically updated, and ready to launch immediately.

CONTACT CAMPAIGN HOTLINE

Targeting Supreme Court Priorities

/in , , /by

The Supreme Court nomination process has rocked the midterm elections. But if you were there in 2016, you’re prepared for late game surprises – the ones with the potential to swing elections and demand on-the-fly strategy changes.

At Resonate, we operate in real-time. We have immediately deployable models for online voter targeting, refreshed nightly to account for the shifts and issues of the day, we ensure campaigns stay relevant and armed with battle-tested data to win in the toughest political climates.

For example, two of the thousands of voter audiences refreshed in our platform last night are likely midterm voters who either support or oppose the appointment of fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Here’s a quick look at where these two segments stand today.

Likely midterm voters who support appointing fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court:

  • Audience size: 35.1 Million
  • Top 3 Supreme Court policies: protect gun rights, further pro-life issues, protect workers’ rights to opt out of a union
  • Driven by a devotion to God and sense of civility – value conformity and reputation
  • 50% more likely to vote based on an important societal or political issue this year
  • 96% more likely to be 65 years or older
  • 44% more likely to vote for a candidate based on their defense/military platform

Likely midterm voters who oppose appointing fiscally and socially conservative judges to the Supreme Court:

  • Audience size: 32.2 Million
  • Top 3 Supreme Court policies: enact gun control, further pro-choice policies, allow unions to collect dues from non-joining workers
  • Driven by expressing individuality and proving competence and skills
  • 133% more likely to have their vote influenced by the newspapers the read
  • 87% more likely to vote absentee
  • 117% more likely to be most passionate about promoting civil liberties

*insights compared to the average U.S. voter.

It’s real-time insights like these that provide a clear view of the voters on both sides of what has become the most important issue in the midterm elections in the final month. With each audience exceeding 30 million likely midterm voters, outreach and engagement strategies to sympathetic voters will prove critical from now until Election Day. If your campaign needs to immediately activate either of these audiences, or another critical voter segment, contact Resonate’s Campaign Hotline today.

CONTACT CAMPAIGN HOTLINE

We tracked a dramatic shift in voter patterns in AZ-08. How secure is your district?

/in , , , /by

In a nationally watched Arizona special election last month, a Democrat came close to victory in a district Republicans won by a 37% vote margin in 2016. The results in Arizona came off the heels of another special election in Pennsylvania, where a Democrat bested a Republican in a district the Democrats didn’t even bother to challenge in 2016.

Conventional intelligence suggests the early special election results are a bellwether for the 2018 midterm elections. Perhaps they are…but if we are to listen closely and objectively, what do these bellwethers actually indicate for campaigns throughout the country?

At Resonate, we leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) models to gain an advanced and unbiased understanding of how voter behavior in AZ-08, home to last month’s special election, and media consumption patterns throughout Arizona can help inform the best strategies for targeting and messaging voters this cycle.

Want to learn more about the digital media bubble phenomena in modern day politics? View the SlideShare – Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

Digital Media Bubbles in AZ-08 Called for Persuasion Tactics

Media Bubbles in AZ-08

 

This map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in digital news consumed by AZ-08 voters – at zip code level – in the months leading up to the April 24th special election. Calculated by AI powered behavioral models, we call these pockets of political news consumption, “media bubbles”.

If the red on the map is indicative of conservative media consumed by voters heading into the election, does this look like a district the Republicans carried by 37% less than 2 years ago?

 

The fact is the landscape and voter patterns in AZ-08 drastically changed in a short period of time…and AI suggests this is happening on a real-time basis in districts all over the nation.

By mapping out these media bubbles, our models showed the best way to win a plurality of the vote in AZ-08 was by adopting a persuasion plan aimed at targeting and appealing to independent-minded voters. Represented in the purple that dominates the above map, these voters were ready for messages that appealed to their policy positions and values, not just party bias or voter history.

Statewide Media Bubbles Reinforce Swing Vote Significance

AZ Media Bubbles Reinforce Swing Vote Significance

This map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in digital news consumed by voters throughout Arizona. White space represents low census areas that fail to provide adequate scale.

Even the behavioral patterns throughout the entire state reinforce the major role independent and swing voters will play in deciding several major races this year, including the Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As the map shows, staunch conservative and liberal media consumption is few and far between…

 

 

To add another layer of significance to the independent voter, AI reveals that only 21% of registered voters in Arizona will choose a candidate based on their party affiliation.

The Bellwether Political Campaigns Should Follow

Early special election results and behavioral patterns in battlegrounds like Arizona are highlighting the essential role independents and swing voters will play in races throughout the nation this year – even in races that were just recently considered foregone conclusions.

To successfully track and engage these audiences, midterm campaigns should embrace AI solutions that power the most relevant data and targeting tools built for political persuasion and real-time measurement.

By adopting these tactics, campaigns will keep speed with quickly-evolving voter patterns and have the tools necessary to engage an entire constituency, not just a broad party platform that is sure to let some voters fall through the cracks. Come Election Day, those voters could very well be the ones who decide the winners and losers.

I Want To Learn More Button

 

[related_posts_by_tax format=”thumbnails” image_size=”post-thumbnail” posts_per_page=”3″ title=”You may also like these articles from Resonate:” link_caption=”true” ]

Texas Too Close to Call? How Will Your Side Fare?

/in , , , /by

A recent Quinnipiac poll found the 2018 Senate race in Texas “too close to call”, suggesting things may be a little closer than you think in a known Republican stronghold.

For a deeper understanding on what’s happening in Texas, we leveraged Resonate’s artificial intelligence (AI) platform to analyze the current partisan divide in the state, focusing on how voters identify politically and then assessing the levels of partisanship present in their media consumption habits. Here’s what we found:

Republicans Hold Majority Support – Independents Outnumber Democrats

When assessing which political party voters in Texas self-identify with, our predictive models show that Republicans still hold the lion’s share of support with 40% — compared to 25% Democrats. No big surprise here considering recent election results.

The real game changer could be in the purple. Our models show that 29% of registered voters in Texas now identify as Independents. Such a big slice of voters not identifying with a party helps us understand the heightened level of uncertainty that’s crept into Texas this cycle. It should also serve notice to both sides: the path to victory needs to include a sophisticated Independent outreach strategy.

The Media Bubble Phenomenon: How Online Behavioral Activity Translates to Real World Patterns 
Using AI powered solutions, Resonate is enabling the modern political campaign to identify-analyze-target ideologically driven, private communication channels in the digital world, better known as “media bubbles”. These strategies are deployed to better understand political landscapes through real-time behavioral patterns and leverage deep voter insights to target persuadables trapped in hostile media environments. Learn more about the role of media bubbles in modern day politics.

Texas Bubbles
Media Consumption Leans Conservative –Liberal Consumption Also Evident

Texas Voters News Consumption

The above map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in online news consumed by Texas voters – at zip code level. Congressional boundaries are drawn to understand the various media bubbles throughout each congressional district.

Given our models show self-Identifying Republicans outnumbering Democrats in Texas by 15%, it’s no surprise that the behavioral data – represented in the above map – shows on average most Texans consume conservative news online.

However, heavy purple patches on the southern border and blue pockets throughout the state tell us the conversation is far from one-sided.

With six months until Election Day, there’s plenty of stories and facts yet to be told. The side that ends up controlling the conversation often comes down to who tells their story best – to the right voters – at the right time.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare, providing a detailed look at the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics and how campaigns can leverage AI to disrupt voter behavior throughout campaign lifecycles.

Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers

[related_posts_by_tax format=”thumbnails” image_size=”post-thumbnail” posts_per_page=”3″ title=”You may also like these articles from Resonate:” link_caption=”true” ]

Understanding Voter Behavior in Pennsylvania – An Unpredictable Battleground

/in , , , /by

Online media patterns emerging in Pennsylvania this cycle reinforce the state’s reputation as a fierce election battleground; a battleground Trump barely claimed in 2016 with 0.7% of the vote.

Want to learn more about the digital media bubble phenomena in modern day politics? View the SlideShare – Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

Statewide and local operatives in Pennsylvania would be wise to pay close attention to the patterns emerging in their target areas. Having real-time access to this level of voter behavioral intelligence will best position campaigns to:

  • Identify emerging pockets of momentum prime for Get-Out-The-Vote and mobilization efforts.
  • Locate and target high-yield counties and districts home to Independents sympathetic to the campaign’s messaging.
  • Combat harmful news stories – as they break – by establishing counter narratives online that target and are tailored to sympathetic voters trapped in opposition media bubbles.

The below map identifies digital media bubbles throughout the state of Pennsylvania. The wave of purple indicates that the majority of Keystone State voters are having election-based conversations that are consistent with an independent narrative. Conservatives nor liberals hold an outright advantage in conservation control.

Pennsylvania Statewide Media Consumption

Resonate’s AI (artificial intelligence) solutions allow campaigns to see clearly into murky political landscapes like Pennsylvania by understanding how digital behavioral patterns are informing voter positioning throughout the course of election cycles.

Media Bubble Methodology
  • Machine-learning technology, observing 10B online events daily, monitored all news consumed by individual devices located in Pennsylvania – at zip code scale.
  • Automated URL and contextual analysis quantified the ideological slant of every publication along conservative and liberal lines.
  • The proportion of bias in media consumption was calculated, at zip code level, by averaging the activity of all devices observed within each zip’s boundaries.
Understanding the Results
  • The maps use a color-scale to show the average proportion of conservative news consumed per zip code: 0.2 (most liberal) to 0.9 (most conservative).
  • Example: 0.3 color would mean on average, 30% of a device’s behavior is conservative in that zip code (by extension, 70% on average is liberal).
  • White space represents areas where census is too low to provide adequate data.
PA-07

The above map documents real-time media bubbles throughout PA-07, a toss-up House race recently redrawn to advantage Republicans. However, the Republican incumbent who dominated the district in years past resigned this year amidst scandal, which changed the status of the PA-07 midterm from “safe” to “toss-up”.

The behavioral patterns we see in PA-07 today support how close things are in the district this year. While the voters in the western part of the district are largely engaging with conservative media, voters in the east have a demand for independent and liberal-based media.

This type of localized behavioral intelligence can serve as a strategic weapon for both sides. In the case of PA-07, Republicans can capitalize on the heavy momentum they have out west towards Lancaster, while Democrats can do the same in the east towards Philadelphia. When it comes to engaging the independent-minded voters who often decide the margins in the toss-ups, both sides should focus on the heart of the district where the minds are open and the conservation is mild.

Stay Tuned for More Resonate AI Behavioral Maps

In the coming weeks, Resonate will be publishing a series of media bubble maps like those seen in Pennsylvania, leveraging AI to measure voter behavior and sentiment in the most competitive states and districts.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare presentation that provides a detailed assessment of the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics: Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

 

[related_posts_by_tax format=”thumbnails” image_size=”post-thumbnail” posts_per_page=”3″ title=”You may also like these articles from Resonate:” link_caption=”true” ]

Resonate Wins Reed Award for “Best Application of Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning”

/in , /by

At the annual Reed Awards in Charleston, South Carolina, Campaigns & Elections awarded Resonate the prestigious Reed Award for “Best Application of Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning.”

The Reeds, named after Campaigns & Elections founder Stanley Foster Reed, “embody excellence in political campaigning, campaign management, political consulting and political design.”

Judged by a panel of peers, Resonate was recognized for our efforts in the 2017 Senate special election.

The Campaign

During the lead up to the special election, Resonate identified an online audience consisting of nearly half a million Alabamians who were consuming the majority of their news from right-wing publications.

Collectively, the constellation of publishers comprising this conservative media bubble functioned as a private communication channel within the Republican base, through which Roy Moore regained traction against crippling allegations of sexual assault without the burden of a counter narrative from a sophisticated opposition. For many voters inside this bubble, the conservative narrative was the only reporting they encountered on the topic, a fact we could verify through real-time assessment of news consumption.

This powerful network, the salacious campaign environment, and challenging electoral conditions in Alabama afforded unique opportunity to court non-obvious Democrat voters.

Our strategy

Resonate verified the bubble’s existence by combining the nation’s largest independent voter research with anonymized contextual, real-time analysis of more than 15 billion page loads per day, leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced predictive modeling to understand the audience at an individual-level.

Our analyses demonstrated that the bubble held enough persuadable Independent and Republican voters to tip the scales in favor of the Democratic candidate, Doug Jones, and neutralize the significant statewide Republican advantage of outnumbering Democrat voters by roughly 2-1.

By leveraging Resonate’s data, analytics, and disruptive strategy, the Jones campaign was able to skirt past conservative talking heads, directly infiltrate the online conservative media bubble, and target niche audiences with pro-Jones messaging that had been largely absent or nonexistent from their digital lives.

The results:

Resonate enabled the Jones campaign to establish a direct line of communication with the over 240,000 voters within the confines of Alabama’s conservative media bubble. Voters were targeted with a negative Roy Moore ad consisting of a 30 second pre-roll video highlighting the serious sexual misconduct allegations levied against Moore, his extreme policy views, and lack of support from leaders in his own party, including Alabama’s senior Republican Senator. These were the types of persuasive Democratic messages that had previously been in short supply or completely absent from these voters’ digital ecosystem.

Overall, the negative Moore video generated 80,000 unique completions with each voter consuming the video an average of 10x.

Of the 80,000 voters in the conservative media bubble who completed the video, are analyses showed:

  • 41% identified as Independents and 45% identified as Republicans
  • 28% voted for Barack Obama in 2012
  • 63% identified as pro-choice voters

The above audiences would prove to be critical for Jones on Election Day, who ended up defeating Moore by 1.5% or 20,715 total votes.

Exit polling demonstrated that Jones won Independents by a margin of 8% or roughly 22,203 Independent voters. Through Resonate targeting, the Jones campaign was able to engage just under 33,000 Independents, which ensured he reached ample Independents to eclipse Moore in the final results.

By infiltrating the bubble, Jones also had a total of 36,000 likely moderate Republicans watch his anti-Moore video. The exit polls showed that 8% of Republicans broke for Jones or roughly 45,463 Republican voters, demonstrating the effectiveness of identifying and targeting moderate Republicans online.

Since Moore campaigned heavily on overturning Roe v Wade and making abortion illegal, it was also imperative that the Jones campaign utilize data and analytics to target pro-choice voters within the bubble. By doing so, Jones was able to engage upwards of 50,000 pro-choice voters within the conservative media bubble that fundamentally disagreed with a central Moore campaign promise.

After the campaign concluded, we explored the outcome of our campaign on an individual’s behavior, using algorithmic capabilities to quantify the slant of individual websites and then assessed what proportion of a device’s behavior came from conservative sites and averaged this metric across all devices seen on a given day.

We discovered that devices exposed to impressions tended to have increasing amounts of liberal browsing following the start of the campaign on Dec 9 relative to non-exposed devices from the state of Alabama. To close out the campaign on December 12 (Election Day), the exposed group showed a 30% bump in liberal browsing relative to the control group.

These results reinforce our strategy of messaging sympathetic voters inside a hostile media environment and suggest these methods should be explored more generally, wherever media asymmetries may influence issue.

How Big Data Can Drive U.S. House Battleground Wins

/in , , /by

As a follow-up to our most recent blog on the U.S. Senate midterm outlook, we wanted to assess the state of the U.S. House heading into a pivotal midterm year and the role big data will play in battleground victories this cycle.

A Fiercely Competitive Midterm Landscape

Both parties’ quest for control of the House needs to go through the roughly 20 battleground districts scattered throughout the country this year, which is only about 5% of all House midterms. And if the 2016 House elections are any indication, these fights will go the distance. Last cycle, approximately 26 battleground races had an average margin of victory of less than 6%.

Strategies that Drive Battleground Victories

The battleground districts are fiercely competitive because winning here means winning the elusive swing voter. This presents a great opportunity for campaigns that understand how to go beyond traditional GOTV tactics that rely on party-line turnout to engage critical independents that will ultimately decide their fate.

At Resonate, our bread and butter is helping campaigns locate and persuade niche voter blocs that carry a candidate over the finish line. By combining census scale, voter research and massive online behavioral models, we can put a microscope on a district and accurately predict over 7,000 targetable attributes for each individual voter.

The result is an electoral profile that goes far beyond static insights, like party affiliation and voter propensity, and gets to the core values and motivations that drive a voter to support a candidate. If a campaign is able to customize their creative and messaging around these deep-level attributes, they ensure optimal engagement through a precise targeting strategy that will maximize media budget.

Real Time Voter Data in a 2018 Toss Up Race

Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district, which covers the south Twin Cities metro area, had a margin of victory of just 1.8% in 2016, making it one of the most heavily contested seats in the country. And the battle for MN-02 is on again this year…

We leveraged Resonate’s real time voter data to take a look at the voters inside MN-02 to gain a better understanding of how campaigns can win their hearts and minds this year. Here’s some of what we found:

  • 17% of the district’s voters have been swing voters in recent elections.
  • Swing voters here are driven by their closeness to family and trust from others. On policy, they believe strongly in a simple tax code and over half of this audience will vote for a candidate based on healthcare policies.
  • Republicans in the district are very concerned with maintaining traditional energy sources compared to statewide Minnesota Republicans.
  • Democrats in the district are very engaged in pro-choice issues compared to statewide Minnesota Democrats.

Making Big Data Work for You this Cycle

The ability to identify and communicate with nice voter blocs by leveraging personalized attributes, like the ones listed above or a unique combination of thousands of other deep-level insights, will lend a tremendous competitive edge for campaigns battling in the tightest of races.

If your campaign is interested in seeing how quickly and easily big data and predictive analytics can be deployed this cycle to identify and persuade the right voters – with the right message – contact us.

I Want To Learn More Button

[related_posts_by_tax format=”thumbnails” image_size=”post-thumbnail” posts_per_page=”3″ title=”You may also like these articles from Resonate:” link_caption=”true” ]

2018 US Senate Outlook and Early On the Ground Realities

/in , , /by

It’s early, although the dawn of the 2018 senate midterm elections has emerged from an unprecedented year of political sensationalism.

The heavy partisan divide in 2017 gave rise to the significance of this year’s midterms and the legislative procedural politics that will frame the debate from now until November, which already include one government shutdown amidst a fierce immigration standoff.

Below we will assess factors framing the senate landscape and leverage Resonate’s real time voter data to measure on-the-ground realities in several senate battlegrounds.

The Map

The split in the senate currently favors Republicans 51-49.

To take control of the senate, the Democrats must pick up 2 seats, while the Republicans need to hold existing seats.

The senate map is bad for Democrats for two primary reasons:

  • Democrats hold 26 of the 34 total seats in play.
  • 10 of the 26 seats Democrats are defending are in states where Trump won in 2016, 5 by double digits.

With the battle field advantage going to the Republicans, we’re already seeing legislative maneuvers by vulnerable Senate Democrats.

Just last week, four Democratic Senators broke with their party and voted with Republicans on a bill to fund the government, despite the majority of Democrats balking at the bill because it failed to include a legislative solution for the Dreamers.

Of these four Democrats, three face difficult paths to reelection this year in states where Trump won by double digits. One of whom is Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a state where Trump won by 42% of the vote.

A look at Resonate’s West Virginia data shows Manchin’s legislative play should yield good results with voters. For example:

  • West Virginia midterm voters who backed Trump in 2016 are over 100% more likely to be a swing voter when compared to voters nationwide.

By taking an early bipartisan position in Washington, Manchin can amplify his independent voice with a significant percentage of the swing voters he needs.

  • Only 15% of West Virginia Democrats likely to vote in the midterms will choose a candidate based on immigration.

Since only a small portion of his Democratic base vote on immigration, Manchin’s vote last week should not rattle the party loyal.

For Manchin and other vulnerable candidates, understanding home state realities throughout the year will be important in identifying and targeting the right voters with the right story.

Voter Turnout

As with any midterm, voter turnout is critical. And while the Republicans are thought to hold the turnout advantage thanks to older voter support, history has shown that when a Republican occupies the White House, that midterm turnout advantage is essentially neutralized.

Campaign strategists are already looking to the millennial vote for turnout success and with good reason. In 2018, millennials passed baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote.

While millennials are the largest eligible voting bloc, turning millennials out in the midterms is not an easy task. In the 2014 midterms, just 12% of voters under 30 voted.

In battleground Wisconsin, Resonate data is already showing the power millennial voters could have over the senate race.

As of now, 21% of likely Wisconsin midterm voters are millennials. The power of this statistic is put in perspective when you consider that Trump only carried Wisconsin with 0.7% of the vote, and incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin won the state with just 51% in her last election.

Identifying eligible voters not likely to vote in midterms may be equally important. The ability to target these audiences with Get-Out-The-Vote messages tailored to their values can be a major competitive advantage in tight races.

Staying in Wisconsin, Resonate data shows hundreds of thousands of eligible millennial voters who are non-frequent midterm voters. Insights on this audience show:

  • They are 41% more likely than the average midterm voter to support a candidate based on environmental policies.
  • 50% of this audience will vote for candidates based on social issues.
  • 38% identify as Independents, while 30% identify as Republicans and 26% as Democrats.

Non-frequent Millennial midterm voters in Wisconsin – Political Party insight

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Millennial non-frequent midterm voters in Wisconsin – Political Party Identification

Approval Ratings and Polling

An early midterm focus has been President Trump’s historically low approval ratings and the extent they will impact election outcomes.

While approval ratings and other national polls can be helpful in assessing the overall landscape, it’s important to understand that even the most reliable polling sources are often too slow to detect on-the-ground, individual-level sentiment shifts in electorates.

It’s estimated that between 5-15% of the electorate oscillate between positions until Election Day. Campaigns that can adequately track and respond to real time voter shifts are likely to win a plurality of the vote in the fiercest battlegrounds.

Two states where senate campaigns will need to monitor voter sentiment closely are Nevada and Arizona, both of which are home to toss-up races that could dictate senate control.

In Arizona, 26% of likely midterm voters are still persuadable on Donald Trump. If national politics end up playing a decisive role in this race, both campaigns have an opportunity to persuade a significant percentage of voters that appear to be on the fence.

Likely Arizona Midterm Voters – Support for Donald Trump insight.

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Likely Arizona Midterm Voters – Support for Donald Trump

In Nevada, another voter insight demonstrates a persuasion opportunity for both sides.

Currently in the Silver State, just under 60% of likely midterm voters are neutral as to whether the American Dream is still within their reach, showing a heightened sense of uncertainty in a pivotal senate race.

Likely Arizona Midterm Voters –American Dream insight

Resonate Data 1/22/2018. Likely Nevada Midterm Voters – American Dream

For the senate battleground campaign this year, it’s important they keep their eyes on the ground with data that scales and allows them to understand the core beliefs of individual voters in order to track how attitudes, positions and behaviors shift on a continuous basis.

About Resonate: Resonate combines the nation’s largest proprietary voter survey data with dynamic behavioral analysis to generate the most accurate, real-time insights and predictive modeling at scale. Our end-to-end data, analytics and digital media activation solution unifies strategy and action to drive campaign wins.

Midterm Election Preview: Millennial Voter Infographic

/in , , /by

As part of Resonate’s 2018 Midterm Election Preview Infographic Series, we take a look at the generation that will pass baby boomers as the largest eligible voter demographic in the country next year: Millennials.

Winning Millennial Voters